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The roots of the Russia-China collaboration date back to 2014, following Russia’s annexation of Crimea. In response to Western sanctions, the two nations found common ground in political, economic, security, and diplomatic spheres. Western sanctions, viewed by Russia as an attempt to weaken the country, accelerated the deepening ties between Moscow and Beijing.
In the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the strategic partnership between Russia and China has intensified, expanding into critical domains such as aerospace, military cooperation, and cyber capabilities. This collaboration has not only raised concerns among Western nations but has also significantly altered the geopolitical landscape. As the alliance deepens, the implications for the United States and its allies become increasingly apparent.
Top officials in the Biden administration have raised alarms over China’s pivotal role in strengthening Russia’s defense industrial base during its most significant military expansion since the Soviet era. As the Ukraine conflict continues, China has reportedly supplied Moscow with a diverse array of resources, including machine tools, drones, turbojet engines, and key technologies for cruise missiles and microelectronics. These contributions extend to nitrocellulose, an essential material for weapon propellant production, highlighting the multifaceted nature of China’s support.
Adding to the concern, Chinese and Russian companies have been observed collaborating on drone production, underscoring the depth of their defense partnership. This collaboration significantly bolsters Russia’s ability to sustain its military operations in Ukraine, especially as Kyiv struggles with equipment shortages.
A Divided Front in the West
The situation is further complicated by political gridlock in the United States, where Republican lawmakers are blocking a vote on a new military aid package for Ukraine. This delay weakens Kyiv’s position, especially as reports indicate that Russia could be gearing up for a new offensive.
In response, the Biden administration has issued strong warnings to Beijing, emphasizing the potential consequences for US-China relations should Russia’s territorial gains in Ukraine continue. During a Town Hall event organized by the National Committee on US-China Relations, Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell stressed the historical importance of European stability to US foreign policy.
“If Russian offenses continue and they gain territory in Ukraine, that will alter the balance of power in Europe in ways that are frankly unacceptable from our perspective,” Campbell stated. His remarks highlight the United States’ resolve to confront not only Russia’s actions but also the broader implications of China’s support.
China’s Initial Hesitations and Changing Role
Campbell revealed that the US had forewarned Chinese officials in early 2022 about an impending Russian invasion of Ukraine, but Beijing seemed skeptical. Initial expectations in China reportedly underestimated the scale of the conflict, viewing it as a limited operation rather than a full-scale war.
However, as Russia faced early setbacks, China adjusted its approach, providing critical support aimed at preventing regime change in Moscow. Over time, Russia reorganized its military strategy and emerged as a more significant long-term threat to Ukraine and its neighbors, with China’s aid playing a crucial role in this transformation.
Moscow-Beijing Alliance: A Strategic Partnership
The growing alignment between Moscow and Beijing is evident in their intensified diplomatic engagements. Shortly before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping elevated their relationship to a “no limits” partnership. Since then, trade between the two nations has surged, reaching $240 billion in 2023—a 26.3% increase from the previous year.
Russia has become a key energy supplier to China, with half of its oil and petroleum exports directed to the Asian giant. These economic ties are complemented by shared ideological stances. During a recent meeting, Xi Jinping and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov condemned Western-led “bloc confrontation” and advocated for reforms in the global system, signaling their unified opposition to Western dominance.
Heightened US-China Tensions
China’s growing support for Russia has further strained its already contentious relationship with the United States. The Biden administration has responded by strengthening alliances with nations like Japan and the Philippines, countering China’s influence in the Asia-Pacific region.
Meanwhile, the US has imposed restrictions on Chinese access to advanced technologies, including semiconductor chips and artificial intelligence capabilities. Beijing has criticized these measures as economic suppression, escalating the economic and geopolitical rivalry between the two powers.
A Shifting Global Order
China’s deepening ties with Russia and its support for Moscow’s military ambitions in Ukraine reflect a broader shift in global power dynamics. This partnership not only challenges Western efforts to isolate Russia but also raises questions about the effectiveness of existing geopolitical strategies.
Russia sees China as essential to its survival, particularly amid Western sanctions and the Ukraine conflict. Moscow relies on Beijing for economic lifelines, diplomatic cover, and technological support while aligning with China’s vision of a multipolar world. Despite becoming a junior partner in the relationship, Russia values China’s support in countering U.S. influence and ensuring regime security.
China’s support for Russia has further strained its relationship with the United States, prompting Washington to strengthen alliances in the Asia-Pacific region and impose export restrictions on critical technologies like semiconductors. This escalating rivalry underscores a broader shift toward a multipolar global order, where traditional Western dominance is increasingly challenged.
As tensions escalate, the United States faces the dual challenge of countering Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and addressing the long-term implications of China’s growing influence in shaping the global order. The stakes are high, and the outcomes of these conflicts will undoubtedly define the contours of international relations for years to come.
The growing alignment between China and Russia represents the most significant threat to U.S. national interests in six decades. This quasi-alliance has made substantial progress in undermining U.S. policies and reshaping the international order over the past decade, a trajectory expected to continue.
Together, China and Russia undertake coordinated efforts to undermine U.S. power and influence on a global scale. Their collaboration spans military, economic, and diplomatic domains, though much of their joint activity remains concealed. This formidable partnership presents a generational challenge for U.S. policymakers, demanding sustained vigilance and strategic innovation to safeguard national interests and uphold the stability of the international order.
