The Changing Face of Terrorism in the United States: Trends, Challenges, and Required Technologies

Introduction

The landscape of terrorism in the United States is evolving, presenting new challenges for law enforcement agencies and national security experts. While international terrorism remains a concern, recent years have witnessed a notable shift towards domestic terrorism. This shift is characterized by several key trends, including the rise of far-right ideologies, the prevalence of lone-wolf attacks, the adoption of sophisticated technology, and the targeting of critical infrastructure. In this article, we explore these changing dynamics and their implications for counterterrorism efforts, focusing on the technologies required to combat such terrorism effectively.

Changing Face of Terrorism

The face of terrorism in the United States has changed dramatically in recent years. In the past, terrorist groups were typically well-organized and hierarchical, with clear command and control structures. They often had state sponsors or the support of other powerful actors.

Today, the threat of terrorism is more diffuse and decentralized. Terrorist groups are often small and loosely affiliated, and they may be motivated by a variety of factors, including political, religious, or ideological beliefs. They may also be more willing to use violence against civilians, and they may be more adept at exploiting new technologies.

The United States confronts a multifaceted threat environment. It includes ongoing concerns related to al-Qa`ida and the Islamic State and their regional affiliations, but it extends beyond these entities.

“Over-the-horizon” counterterrorism capability

For nearly twenty years, counterterrorism held the position of paramount importance in America’s defense and national security agenda. However, a significant shift occurred in 2018 with the unveiling of the National Defense Strategy during the Trump administration. The principal focus of U.S. national security transitioned from counterterrorism to the realm of inter-state strategic competition.

Over-the-horizon counterterrorism, a shift driven by China and Russia’s rise, focuses on remote intelligence and targeted strikes over prolonged deployments. Following Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan and al-Zawahiri’s drone strike, this strategy’s effectiveness is evident.

The successful CIA drone strike on July 31, 2022, resulting in the death of Ayman al-Zawahiri, demonstrated the effectiveness of this “over-the-horizon” strategy. Al-Zawahiri, the leader of al-Qa`ida, was targeted and killed while on the balcony of a villa in Kabul’s upscale Shirpur neighborhood. He had reportedly been residing there as a guest of Sirajuddin Haqqani, a prominent terrorist figure and Taliban Minister of the Interior. This operation provided tangible evidence that the United States could indeed track and neutralize high-value targets even in complex and remote regions, reinforcing the credibility of its counterterrorism efforts.

While regional affiliates remain, their threats are largely localized. The challenge lies in balancing this focused approach with vigilance against potential global ambitions.

State Sponsored Terrorism

In addition to these ongoing threats from the established terrorist movements of al-Qa`ida and the Islamic State and their respective branches, there are the challenges posed by state sponsors of terrorism. As Seth Jones, who directs the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), has warned, “While conventional warfare—clashes between large military forces—defined twentieth-century power, irregular warfare will increasingly define international politics in the coming decades.”

Additionally, the U.S. must address threats from armed non-state proxies or surrogates, often backed by nations like Iran and Russia, which may directly challenge U.S. interests or contribute to security challenges in regions like Africa, as exemplified by the activities of the Wagner Group.

Iran has long been a proponent of international terrorism, employing irregular warfare, covert operations, and surrogate terrorism as key elements of its foreign policy. This approach intensified in recent years, with Iran actively supporting partner militias in various conflicts through its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and elite Quds Force. Notably, Iran played a significant role in bolstering the Syrian regime led by Bashar al-Assad. Furthermore, it posed a direct threat to U.S. military forces in the Middle East, exemplified by missile attacks from groups like Kataib Hezbollah, a designated terrorist militia.

Of increasing concern is Iran’s involvement in sponsoring terrorism within the United States, including covert operations to eliminate dissidents and other perceived enemies. This includes incidents like the 1980 murder of Ali Akbar Tabatabai and a 2011 plot to assassinate the Saudi Arabian ambassador on U.S. soil. Recent activities involve an upsurge in Iranian-backed or inspired terrorist plotting in the U.S., such as the attack on author Salman Rushdie in 2022 and the targeting of a Wall Street Journal reporter in 2021, highlighting Iran’s willingness to engage in acts of violence on American soil in violation of U.S. sovereignty.

Russia has been actively involved in influence and information operations against Western adversaries, notably interfering in the 2016 U.S. presidential election and repeating such efforts in the 2022 midterms. Moreover, Russia has maintained connections with elements of the American far-right, exemplified by Rinaldo Nazzaro, leader of the American neo-Nazi terrorist group, The Base, who operated from St. Petersburg, Russia. In 2020, the U.S. State Department designated the Russian Imperial Movement, a violent far-right group in Russia, as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist. While Russia’s global influence has diminished following its invasion of Ukraine, there is concern that it may endeavor to revive its irregular campaigns within the United States.

Domestic Challenges

The most pressing threat to the United States now originates from within its own borders, characterized by politically motivated domestic violence that lacks a clear timeline or target. The paramount menace lies in domestic terrorism associated with the violent far-right, encompassing white supremacist and white nationalist networks, as well as anti-government extremists.

Domestically, the challenge involves navigating a convoluted landscape of extremism, featuring individuals, dispersed networks, and militias motivated by diverse ideologies and objectives. These groups often exploit misinformation and conspiracy theories, further complicating the landscape. Recent data from the Anti-Defamation League reveals that nearly 90 percent of extremist killings in 2021 were attributed to right-wing extremists, continuing a decade-long trend with 75 percent of almost 450 extremist-related murders since 2012 connected to the far-right.  The violent far-right combines leaderless resistance, promoting small cell and lone actor violence, with organized factions like the Oath Keepers, Three Percenters, Proud Boys, Patriot Front, and boogaloo bois, often fueled by conspiracy theories targeting various adversaries.

This assessment does not encompass the gravity of the January 6, 2021 storming of the U.S. Capitol or the deadliest terrorism incident in 2022, a mass shooting in Buffalo claiming 10 lives.

The Rise of Domestic Terrorism

One of the most striking developments in recent years is the surge in domestic terrorism. Motivated by far-right ideologies such as white supremacy or anti-government extremism, domestic terrorists have carried out many attacks and plots within U.S. borders.

Domestic extremism emerged as a predominant motivator behind terrorist incidents within the country in 2021, with a significant portion of these incidents being driven by racially or ethnically motivated ideologies. Among these attacks, the most devastating occurred at a grocery store in Buffalo, New York, where a mass shooting claimed the lives of 10 individuals, illustrating the grave consequences of domestic extremism.

Rajeev Ramchand, an expert in the field of radicalization, delves into the increasing threat posed by domestic violent extremism in the United States. He suggests that domestic extremism is a greater potential threat to the country than international terrorism due to its complexity.

Ramchand raises an essential point about the economic factors contributing to radicalization. Economic grievances, particularly among young white males with limited education, are fertile ground for extremist ideologies. He draws parallels between despair, anger, and extremism, emphasizing that these grievances can lead to both violence and self-destructive behaviors like drug abuse or suicide. The absence of economic opportunities and the feeling of being left behind can drive individuals to extremist groups.

Ramchand also highlights the role of groups in radicalization and the difficulty individuals face when trying to leave these extremist organizations. He underscores the importance of social bonds and support networks for individuals who disengage from such groups.

The Biden administration has taken proactive measures to confront domestic terrorism threats, implementing new policies, legislative efforts, and vigorous prosecutions. To counter the proliferation of domestic political violence, the administration introduced the inaugural National Strategy for Countering Domestic Terrorism in June 2021. Furthermore, a specialized summit called “United We Stand” was convened to formulate effective responses to the surge in domestic terrorism. Bipartisan legislative proposals have aimed to mitigate gun violence and address electoral certification rules, with the latter being a preventive measure against incidents similar to January 6.

The Proliferation of Lone-Wolf Attacks

Law enforcement agencies in the United States are on high alert due to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. A joint bulletin from the FBI, the Department of Homeland Security, and the National Counterterrorism Center warns of potential threats from “lone offenders” inspired by or reacting to the Israel-Hamas conflict. The bulletin emphasizes the increased risk to faith communities, particularly Jewish and Muslim communities, and notes a rise in threats. While there is no specific call for attacks on U.S. soil from Hamas, the bulletin highlights concerns about other foreign terrorist organizations potentially influencing homegrown extremists. Law enforcement is employing sophisticated tools and techniques to monitor for potential threats, and measures, such as increased police visibility, are being taken in response to the heightened threat environment. The State Department has also advised caution to U.S. citizens and diplomats abroad, urging increased vigilance and enrollment in the Smart Traveler Enrollment Program.

Lone-wolf attacks, perpetrated by individuals with no direct affiliation to established terrorist organizations, have become a troubling trend. These individuals often act independently, making their activities harder to predict and prevent. Advanced data analytics and artificial intelligence (AI) can play a vital role in identifying behavioral patterns and early warning signs associated with potential lone-wolf attackers. Predictive analytics, coupled with enhanced information sharing among law enforcement agencies, can help detect and mitigate threats from lone actors.

In 2021, the United States experienced a total of 77 terrorist attacks and plots, representing a notable 30% decrease from the previous year. However, despite this decline in the frequency of attacks, there was a concerning increase in the number of fatalities resulting from terrorism, with casualties rising from 5 in 2020 to 30 in 2021. This shift underscores the evolving nature of the threat landscape, highlighting that even fewer attacks can have a more substantial and devastating impact.

To combat this threat, advanced technologies are crucial for monitoring online extremist communities, tracking potential threats, and identifying emerging trends in extremist ideologies.

The Use of Advanced Technology

Terrorists have adapted to the digital age, utilizing sophisticated technology to plan and execute their acts of violence. Encrypted communications, social media platforms, and the dark web have become essential tools for coordinating attacks and spreading extremist ideologies. To combat these tech-savvy terrorists, advanced cybersecurity and surveillance technologies are required. Enhanced data encryption detection capabilities, AI-driven content analysis to identify extremist content, and tools to trace online communication networks are essential components of the technological arsenal needed to disrupt these activities.

Targeting Critical Infrastructure

Another alarming trend is the deliberate targeting of critical infrastructure by terrorists. Power grids, transportation systems, and water supplies are now on their radar. Protecting these infrastructures requires advanced monitoring and threat detection systems. Utilizing the Internet of Things (IoT) and sensor networks, critical infrastructure can be continuously monitored for anomalies or potential threats. Furthermore, AI-powered cybersecurity systems can provide real-time threat assessments and response recommendations to safeguard these vital assets.

Shift in counterterrorism strategy

The evolving landscape of terrorism in the United States necessitates a shift in counterterrorism strategy. As domestic terrorism, lone-wolf attacks, advanced technology, and critical infrastructure targeting become more prevalent, our approach to combating terrorism must adapt accordingly.

Embrace a Whole-of-Society Approach

Traditional counterterrorism efforts have primarily focused on law enforcement and intelligence agencies. However, in the face of domestic terrorism and lone-wolf attacks, it’s essential to adopt a whole-of-society approach. This strategy involves engaging communities, social services, mental health professionals, and educators in identifying and preventing radicalization. Community outreach programs, social interventions, and educational initiatives can play a vital role in countering extremist ideologies at an early stage.

Balancing Civil Liberties and Security: Balancing the need for security with civil liberties is crucial when dealing with domestic extremists. Strategies should focus on isolating extremists while avoiding turning a significant portion of the population into adversaries of the state.

Community Engagement: Although community tips have been valuable in the past, the evolving threat may require different approaches to community engagement. Building trust and understanding within communities vulnerable to extremism is essential.

Addressing Economic Factors: Policies aimed at reducing economic disparities and offering opportunities to marginalized individuals can mitigate some of the economic grievances driving extremism.

Countering Online Radicalization: Strategies should focus on countering online radicalization efforts, which exploit individuals’ vulnerabilities and disseminate extremist ideologies.

Enhancing Intelligence and Law Enforcement:

Continuous improvements in intelligence capabilities are vital for uncovering and disrupting extremist threats. Additionally, law enforcement must navigate the challenges posed by domestic extremism effectively.

The rapid spread of extremist ideologies through online platforms demands improved intelligence sharing among local, state, and federal agencies. Collaborative information-sharing platforms and data integration tools should be developed to ensure that critical intelligence is quickly disseminated to relevant authorities. Furthermore, fostering partnerships with technology companies and social media platforms can aid in monitoring and countering online extremism effectively.

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Strengthen Critical Infrastructure Protection

Protecting critical infrastructure from terrorist attacks requires a comprehensive strategy. Enhancing the cybersecurity of essential systems, implementing IoT-based monitoring, and employing advanced threat detection mechanisms are key components of this strategy. Regular drills and exercises involving relevant agencies and private-sector partners can help ensure a coordinated response to potential threats.

Foster International Collaboration

Terrorism knows no borders, and international collaboration remains vital. The United States should continue to work closely with its allies to share intelligence, coordinate efforts, and combat transnational terrorist threats effectively. Joint operations and intelligence-sharing agreements can help track and disrupt international terrorist networks.

Prioritize Prevention and Rehabilitation

Preventing radicalization and rehabilitating individuals who have been radicalized are crucial aspects of modern counterterrorism. Establishing dedicated programs for intervention, counseling, and community reintegration can help divert individuals away from extremism and ensure that they become productive members of society.

Invest in Advanced Technologies

These trends pose a number of challenges to the United States. It is becoming increasingly difficult to track and identify lone actors and domestic terrorists. Terrorist groups are also becoming more adept at using technology, which makes it more difficult to disrupt their operations. And the growing threat of cyberterrorism poses a new and serious challenge to national security.

To address these challenges, the United States will need to adopt new technologies and strategies. For example, the government is investing in artificial intelligence and machine learning to help track and identify potential terrorists. It is also developing new cyber defenses to protect against cyberattacks.

To combat terrorists’ use of advanced technology, counterterrorism efforts must leverage cutting-edge tools and techniques. Investments in artificial intelligence, machine learning, and data analytics can help identify patterns of behavior indicative of extremist activity on digital platforms. Moreover, the development of AI-driven content analysis and cybersecurity solutions is essential for detecting and preventing online radicalization and cyber threats.

Artificial intelligence (AI): AI is being used to track and identify potential terrorists in a number of ways. For example, AI can be used to analyze social media data for signs of radicalization. This can be done by looking for keywords or phrases that are commonly used by terrorists, or by tracking the connections between individuals. AI can also be used to identify patterns of behavior that may be indicative of terrorist activity. For example, AI can be used to track travel patterns or financial transactions.

Machine learning: Machine learning is a type of AI that allows computers to learn from data without being explicitly programmed. This makes machine learning well-suited for tasks such as detecting cyberattacks. Machine learning algorithms can be trained on data sets of known cyberattacks, and then used to identify new attacks. This can help to prevent cyberattacks from succeeding.

Biometrics: Biometrics are physical or behavioral characteristics that can be used to identify individuals. Biometric technologies, such as facial recognition and fingerprint scanning, are being used to screen people at airports and other high-risk locations. This can help to prevent terrorists from entering the country or carrying out attacks.

Surveillance: Surveillance technologies, such as drones and CCTV cameras, are being used to monitor public spaces and detect suspicious activity. This can help to identify potential terrorists before they can carry out an attack.

Encryption: Encryption is the process of scrambling data so that it can only be read by authorized users. Encryption is being used to protect sensitive information from being hacked. This includes information such as government secrets, financial data, and personal information.

These are just some of the technologies that are being used to combat terrorism in the United States. It is important to note that these technologies are not a silver bullet. They can be used to make the United States safer from terrorism, but they must be used in a way that respects civil liberties.

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Conclusion

Adapting counterterrorism strategy to the changing landscape of terrorism is an urgent necessity for the United States. Addressing the evolving face of terrorism in the United States demands not only effective policies and strategies but also the deployment of advanced technologies. As terrorism becomes more decentralized, tech-savvy, and unpredictable, staying ahead of the curve is essential. Leveraging technologies such as advanced data analytics, artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and IoT can empower law enforcement agencies to detect, prevent, and respond to emerging terrorist threats more effectively. As we adapt to the changing landscape of terrorism, embracing these technologies will be paramount in ensuring the safety and security of our nation’s citizens and critical infrastructure.

The nation must strike a delicate balance between security measures and civil liberties while countering online radicalization and preventing the glamorization of violence. Only through a multifaceted, adaptive approach can the U.S. effectively confront the evolving challenges of terrorism in the 21st century.