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China’s military-industrial complex (MIC) has undergone a remarkable transformation over the past few decades, evolving from a primarily import-dependent structure to a formidable, self-reliant entity. This evolution has positioned China as a significant player in global defense, with advancements in various domains. However, this ascent is accompanied by challenges that necessitate strategic considerations.
Evolution of China’s Military Power
Over the past few decades, China has transformed its military from a predominantly manpower-intensive force to a technologically advanced entity. This transformation is evident across several key areas, including defense budget expansion, naval modernization, and technological advancements.
Defense Budget Expansion
China’s commitment to military modernization is reflected in its consistently growing defense budget. In 2024, China’s defense spending was estimated at $474 billion, significantly higher than the official budget of $232 billion. This substantial investment underscores the nation’s focus on enhancing its defense capabilities and achieving strategic objectives.
Naval Modernization
As the world’s largest shipbuilder, China’s shipbuilding capacity significantly surpasses that of the United States. Major shipyards like Jiangnan possess capacities exceeding all U.S. shipyards combined, facilitating the rapid expansion of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). The PLAN is numerically the largest navy globally, with 370 ships and submarines, and projections indicate an increase to 395 ships by 2025 and 435 by 2030. This growth enhances China’s maritime capabilities and reflects its strategic emphasis on naval power.
Technological Advancements
China has invested heavily in acquiring high-end weapons systems and equipment, progressing at a pace outstripping many counterparts. This includes advancements in missile technology, cyber warfare capabilities, and space operations. The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) into military operations is also a focus, with reports suggesting that China could have fully autonomous weapons operational in the near future. These technological strides position China at the forefront of modern warfare capabilities, challenging existing global military balances.
China’s comprehensive approach to military modernization reflects its ambition to establish a world-class military by 2049, aligning with broader national objectives and reshaping global power dynamics.
Growth of China’s MIC
The evolution of China’s military power is deeply intertwined with the development of its military-industrial complex (MIC). As China embarked on modernizing its armed forces, the MIC played a pivotal role by supplying advanced weaponry and technology. This synergy between military needs and industrial capabilities has propelled China towards self-reliance in defense production, reducing dependence on foreign technology. Initiatives like “Made in China 2025” exemplify this drive, aiming to enhance indigenous innovation within the defense sector. The MIC’s expansion not only supports military advancements but also contributes to economic growth, as seen in the dual-use technologies that benefit both civilian and military applications. Furthermore, the MIC’s role in fostering collaborations, such as the construction of submarines for Pakistan, underscores its influence in strengthening China’s geopolitical alliances. In essence, the progression of China’s military capabilities is both a catalyst for and a reflection of the MIC’s growth and strategic significance.
Historically, China’s defense sector relied heavily on foreign technology and imports. Over time, strategic initiatives aimed at fostering indigenous innovation have led to the development of advanced military technologies. This shift has enabled China to produce sophisticated weaponry and reduce its dependence on external sources. China’s military expenditure has consistently grown, reflecting its focus on modernization. In 2025, China is ranked third out of 145 countries in military strength, with a Power Index score of 0.0788.
Comparative Analysis with Global Counterparts
When juxtaposed with other major military powers, China’s MIC exhibits both strengths and areas for improvement. For instance, China’s shipbuilding capacity is unparalleled, being approximately 230 times larger than that of the United States. Major shipyards like Jiangnan possess more capacity than all U.S. shipyards combined. Additionally, China is acquiring high-end weapons systems and equipment at a pace five to six times faster than the U.S.
In the realm of air and naval forces, China’s advancements have outpaced those of Russia, showcasing superior qualitative and quantitative capabilities. However, Russia continues to lead in certain areas, such as missile technology and nuclear capabilities. These distinctions highlight the varied trajectories and strategic focuses of each nation’s MIC.
Emphasis on Dual-Use Technologies
A cornerstone of China’s MIC strategy is the emphasis on dual-use technologies—innovations applicable in both civilian and military contexts. The declassification of over 3,000 patents related to such technologies in 2017 exemplifies this approach. By integrating civilian technological advancements into military applications, China enhances its defense capabilities while fostering economic growth.
Global Implications and Strategic Considerations
China’s MIC developments have significant global ramifications. The preparedness to enforce a blockade on Taiwan, for instance, underscores China’s growing military assertiveness and has the potential to disrupt regional stability and international trade. Furthermore, China’s support for Russia’s defense industry through the provision of dual-use components reflects its strategic intent to maintain robust alliances while navigating complex geopolitical landscapes.
Quality Concerns in Chinese Military Equipment
China’s military-industrial complex has made significant strides in expanding its global footprint, supplying weapons to over 53 nations, including Pakistan, Myanmar, Bangladesh, and various countries in Africa and the Middle East. However, concerns regarding the quality and reliability of Chinese military equipment have surfaced among several of these importing nations, potentially impacting China’s arms export ambitions.
Pakistan, one of the largest importers of Chinese military hardware, has encountered multiple challenges with its acquisitions. The Pakistan Navy reported technical issues with Chinese-produced F-22P frigates, including engine degradation and subpar overall performance. Additionally, the FM90 (N) missile system’s onboard imaging device was found to have a defective infrared sensor system, rendering the missile system incapable of locking onto targets.
The Pakistan Army has also faced difficulties with other Chinese-made equipment. In February 2022, quality and reliability issues were identified in the VT-4 main battle tanks supplied by China North Industries Corporation (Norinco). Similar concerns arose with 203mm towed heavy artillery guns imported from China, raising questions about their operational effectiveness.
Furthermore, the JF-17 fighter jets, co-produced by Pakistan and China, have reportedly underperformed, leading to a significant number being grounded. This has resulted in Pakistan’s continued reliance on US-made F-16s, despite efforts to diversify its military assets.
These quality concerns are not confined to Pakistan. Myanmar’s experiences with Chinese military equipment have also highlighted issues of unreliability, contributing to broader apprehensions about the dependability of Chinese arms. Recently, Bangladesh complained about faulty Chinese spare parts for its Navy. As it emerges, all three military branches of Bangladesh are struggling with ‘sub-standard’ Chinese supplies.
In recent years, countries such as Algeria, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Myanmar have experienced notable declines in arms imports from China. This trend is particularly significant among semi-democratic or autocratic nations, which traditionally have higher demands in the international arms market. Additionally, China’s overall arms exports declined by 5.3% during 2019–2023 compared to the 2014–2018 period, indicating challenges within its military-industrial complex.
Another issue is corrpution and inefficiency. Efforts to purge corruption within China’s defense sector have led to the investigation of at least 15 high-ranking officials since 2023. Despite these measures, systemic issues persist, including bureaucratic inefficiencies and divided loyalties within the military establishment. These challenges hinder effective coordination and resource distribution within the military-industrial complex, complicating China’s broader military modernization objectives.
Addressing these quality and reliability issues is crucial for China to sustain and expand its arms export market. Ensuring technological compatibility and enhancing the performance standards of military equipment will be vital in maintaining existing partnerships and fostering new alliances in the global arms trade.
Technological Dependence in China’s Military-Industrial Complex
China’s military-industrial complex has made significant strides toward self-reliance, yet it continues to grapple with technological dependencies in critical areas. Despite substantial investments in research and development, the defense sector remains reliant on foreign technologies, particularly in advanced semiconductors and aerospace components. This reliance is highlighted by China’s increasing trade deficit in electrical machinery, which includes semiconductor chips. To address this challenge, China has implemented initiatives like “Made in China 2025,” aiming to foster indigenous innovation and reduce dependence on foreign technology. However, achieving complete technological autonomy remains a complex and ongoing endeavor.
Ethical Implications in China’s Military-Industrial Complex
The pursuit of dual-use technologies—those applicable in both civilian and military contexts—raises significant ethical and strategic considerations within China’s military-industrial complex. Integrating artificial intelligence (AI) into military operations enhances operational capabilities but also introduces concerns regarding accountability and potential unintended consequences. The development and deployment of Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS) underscore the need for stringent international norms and regulations to ensure responsible use. Furthermore, the blurred lines between civilian and military applications complicate international relations, intertwining trade policies with national security issues and leading to increased geopolitical tensions.
Addressing these ethical challenges requires a balanced approach that promotes technological innovation while adhering to ethical standards and maintaining regional stability. China’s efforts to navigate these complexities will significantly influence its trajectory as a global military power and its relationships within the international community.
Conclusion
China’s MIC stands as a testament to the nation’s commitment to bolstering its defense capabilities through innovation and strategic planning. While significant progress has been made, ongoing challenges necessitate continuous evaluation and adaptation. By addressing quality concerns, reducing technological dependencies, and navigating the ethical complexities of military expansion, China can further solidify its position as a leading global military power
