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The evolution of warfare has dramatically shifted over the past few decades, driven by advancements in technology, geopolitics, and the changing nature of threats. As militaries and defense organizations strive to anticipate future conflicts, wargaming has emerged as an essential tool for testing strategies, technologies, and operational concepts. Traditionally, wargames have focused on single domains like land, sea, air, or cyber, but the increasing complexity of modern warfare demands a more integrated approach. This has led to the rise of Multi-Domain Operations (MDO) and Multi-Domain Battle (MDB) wargaming, a trend that is reshaping the way militaries simulate and prepare for future conflicts.
Wargaming, at its core, is a strategic game that simulates warfare in a controlled environment. Military wargames, however, take this a step further, serving as critical tools for training military officers in tactical and strategic decision-making, testing new strategies, and predicting future conflict trends. Given that these games prepare officers for real-world warfare, they emphasize realism and often incorporate current global events. The models used within wargames simulate the properties, capabilities, and behaviors of key components such as weapons, vehicles, troops, terrain, and even weather conditions.
The Evolution of Military Wargames
Military wargames come in a variety of formats. At one end of the spectrum, there are tabletop exercises—simple yet effective tools that rely on basic computer models. These wargames typically involve high-ranking military and political officials playing through real-world scenarios. The insights gained from these exercises often inform policy and strategic decisions.
However, this traditional approach has limitations. According to Bethany Goldblum, a researcher at UC Berkeley’s Nuclear Engineering department, “Because you have a limited player set and only play through a few scenarios, you don’t get enough data from these scenario-based discussions to draw statistical inference.” This means that while traditional wargaming can provide valuable insights, it lacks the data necessary for broad analysis.
Andrew Reddie, a Ph.D. candidate at UC Berkeley, echoes this sentiment. Without statistical inference, the results from traditional wargames cannot be generalized. “Traditional, discussion-based exercises have led to a theory-rich, but data-poor environment for scholarly inquiry,” he explains. To address this, new tools—such as board games and electronic games—are being used to complement traditional wargaming, offering a more data-rich framework for analysis.
Introducing a New Era in Wargaming
Goldblum, Reddie, and their colleagues recognized the limitations of traditional wargames and sought to overcome them by leveraging cutting-edge game engines and cloud computing. They developed a multi-player online game called SIGNAL, designed to examine nuclear deterrence and conflict escalation. The game allows researchers to gather data from thousands of scenarios, rather than just a handful, providing a more robust foundation for statistical analysis.
The game, developed with support from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, involves players controlling fictional countries, competing for influence through population growth, infrastructure investment, and military force. Real-time score updates provide players with immediate feedback on their decisions, while anonymized data collected from these games serve as input for machine learning algorithms. These models help create optimal behaviors and strategies, which can then be tested in future wargames.
Science-Based Simulations: A Data-Driven Approach
Science-based simulations are becoming a cornerstone of modern wargaming. These simulations rely on data from actual military operations, scientific research, and technological advancements to create realistic models of how future conflicts might unfold. By integrating data on weapon systems, troop movements, cyber capabilities, and logistics, science-based simulations provide a comprehensive understanding of how different elements of warfare interact.
These simulations are particularly valuable in understanding the complexities of modern battlefields, where cyber warfare, electronic warfare, and kinetic operations are intertwined. The ability to simulate these interactions in real-time gives military planners a better sense of how to coordinate resources and achieve mission objectives under challenging conditions. The incorporation of real-world physics, cyber vulnerabilities, and logistical constraints into science-based simulations ensures that wargames are not only realistic but also grounded in current technological capabilities.
The Shift to Multi-Domain Wargames: Simulating the Complexity of Modern Warfare
The transition from domain-specific wargames to Multi-Domain Operations (MDO) and Multi-Domain Battle (MDB) reflects the growing recognition that modern conflicts will span across multiple domains—land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace. These domains are no longer isolated; actions in one domain can have direct and immediate effects in others. As a result, the military must develop strategies that can integrate operations across all these domains simultaneously.
Multi-Domain Wargaming focuses on simulating scenarios where coordinated action is required across these diverse environments. For example, in a simulated conflict, cyber-attacks could disable enemy communication networks, while space-based assets provide real-time intelligence to ground forces engaged in combat. Meanwhile, air and naval forces work to maintain dominance in their respective domains, all while ensuring that logistics and support systems remain functional.
This holistic approach requires a new level of coordination and decision-making, where commanders must understand how actions in one domain can influence the outcomes in others. MDO/MDB wargaming emphasizes the importance of integrating joint operations, where different branches of the military work in concert to achieve strategic objectives. These wargames are not just about tactical engagements; they are about understanding the full spectrum of operations, from cyber defense to logistical planning, and how they intersect with traditional kinetic warfare.
Key Features of Multi-Domain Wargames
1. Cross-Domain Integration: Unlike traditional wargames that focus on a single domain, MDO/MDB simulations integrate operations across all five domains—land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace. This requires an understanding of how different assets and capabilities interact and how commanders can leverage them to achieve mission success.
2. Real-Time Data and Decision-Making: Multi-domain wargames incorporate real-time data feeds, allowing players to make decisions based on current intelligence, reconnaissance, and battlefield conditions. This mirrors the complexity of modern operations, where commanders must react quickly to dynamic situations.
3. Cyber and Electronic Warfare: With the growing importance of cyber and electronic warfare, MDO wargames place a significant emphasis on these non-kinetic operations. Players must defend their networks from cyberattacks while also using electronic warfare capabilities to disrupt enemy communications and intelligence.
4. AI-Driven Adversaries: In MDO wargames, AI systems often control the actions of enemy forces, providing an unpredictable and adaptive challenge. This AI-driven approach ensures that players face a constantly evolving threat environment, similar to what they might encounter in real-world operations.
5. Joint and Coalition Operations: Multi-domain wargames emphasize the importance of interoperability between different branches of the military and coalition partners. These simulations highlight the need for effective communication and coordination in joint operations, particularly in scenarios where allies bring different capabilities and resources to the table.
The Army’s Unified Challenge: Testing Multi-Domain Operations
In August 2019, the U.S. Army conducted a weeks-long simulation, Unified Challenge 19.2, which involved over 400 participants testing future equipment and warfighting methods. The simulation allowed Army leaders to gain insights into complex patterns emerging from multi-domain operations. Notably, the experiment incorporated non-lethal effects, such as electronic jamming and cyber-attacks, to support maneuver warfighting.
The Army’s focus on MDO is part of a broader effort to synchronize land, air, space, cyber, and maritime domains into a cohesive battle plan. The goal is to converge effects—whether kinetic or non-kinetic—quickly enough to outpace adversaries. Artificial intelligence (AI) plays a key role in this, helping commanders identify targets and choose the most effective response in real-time.
The UK’s Defence Wargaming Centre: A New Hub for Strategic Innovation
The UK’s Ministry of Defence has also embraced the importance of wargaming, establishing the Defence Wargaming Centre (DWC) in early 2020. Located at the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory’s (Dstl) Portsdown West campus, the facility is the UK’s first dedicated wargaming center, designed to support the RAF, Royal Navy, and British Army.
The DWC is a response to the growing demand for wargames as a tool for decision-making and national defense policy. Its mix of manual simulations, such as board games, and computer-based modeling allows participants to immerse themselves in complex scenarios, testing hypotheses and assessing potential consequences in a “safe-to-fail” environment. Notably, Dstl has also collaborated with commercial video game developers to introduce more user-friendly and accessible wargaming tools for military use.
The Role of AI in Wargaming
Artificial Intelligence (AI) has revolutionized wargaming by providing the ability to simulate complex scenarios that were previously unimaginable. Modern AI systems can process vast amounts of data, analyze potential outcomes, and model real-time decision-making under dynamic conditions. These AI-driven wargames offer valuable insights into how military operations might unfold across multiple dimensions, allowing commanders to make more informed decisions. By incorporating AI, wargames now simulate not just tactical engagements but also the strategic, political, and economic impacts of warfare.
AI also brings a level of unpredictability to wargaming, which is crucial for testing resilience and adaptability. It can simulate adversaries that are not limited by human biases, offering a more realistic and challenging experience. With the growing use of AI in wargaming, the focus has shifted from purely deterministic models to more probabilistic approaches, allowing for a wider range of potential outcomes and greater flexibility in response strategies.
OpenAI’s AI Technology and the Future of U.S. Army Battle Planning
The U.S. Army Research Laboratory (ARL) is exploring new frontiers in military technology by investigating how advanced artificial intelligence (AI) systems, such as those developed by OpenAI, can revolutionize battle planning and decision-making. While their current research focuses on AI applications in military video games, the potential for real-world use is immense.
Military simulations have long been essential tools for training soldiers, developing tactics, and planning strategic operations. Now, with AI entering the picture, these simulations could become far more sophisticated and adaptive. OpenAI’s cutting-edge technology could automate certain aspects of the simulations and create dynamic environments that shift in real time, challenging military personnel in ways never before possible.
By integrating AI-driven systems, military planners can test multi-domain battle strategies against AI opponents that continuously learn and adapt. This would provide deeper insights into tactical effectiveness, enabling commanders to evaluate their strategies under various conditions with greater precision.
Key Areas of Exploration:
- Strategic Decision-Making: Researchers are examining how AI can assist military commanders in making complex and time-sensitive decisions during battles. By analyzing vast amounts of data and simulating various scenarios, AI can provide valuable insights and recommendations.
- Predictive Analytics: AI can be used to predict enemy movements, anticipate potential threats, and identify vulnerabilities. This can help military planners develop more effective strategies and tactics.
- Scenario Generation: AI can generate realistic and diverse battle scenarios, allowing commanders to train for a wide range of potential situations. This can improve the adaptability and resilience of military forces.
- Human-Machine Collaboration: ARL is also exploring how AI can collaborate effectively with human operators. By understanding the strengths and limitations of both humans and AI, researchers can develop systems that maximize their combined capabilities.
Although the ARL’s research with OpenAI is still in the early stages, the potential impact on modern warfare is clear. AI-driven battle planning tools could fundamentally change the way future conflicts are fought. From data-rich environments and real-time strategy adaptation to highly sophisticated simulations of future battlefields, the U.S. military stands to gain a significant advantage.
Preparing for the Future of Warfare
As global security challenges become more complex, MDO/MDB wargames are critical in preparing military forces for the unpredictable nature of future conflicts. These simulations provide invaluable insights into how multi-domain operations can be coordinated, tested, and refined.
By leveraging AI, science-based simulations, and real-time data, military planners can develop strategies that ensure readiness across all domains, ultimately improving their ability to respond to emerging threats. Whether through autonomous decision-making support or advanced simulations, AI is poised to become a central element in military strategy, reshaping the future of combat in the process.
The trend towards MDO/MDB wargaming reflects the future of warfare—where no domain operates in isolation and success depends on the seamless integration of capabilities across the entire spectrum of operations. As technology continues to evolve, so too will wargaming, enabling defense organizations to stay one step ahead in an increasingly multi-domain battlespace.
Through these wargames, the company and its military partners have created recommendations for developing a common lexicon, synchronising effects across domains, organising distributed planning teams, and using tools and decision aids for visualisation and dynamic, integrated planning. The wargames are as much about understanding the concept and how technology can be utilised as they are about learning how to control it.
