The Future of Air Superiority: Inside the U.S. Air Force’s Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) Program

Rajesh Uppal 3 weeks ago Air Force & Aviation, Geopolitics, Strategy & Technological Rivalries, Unmanned & Autonomous Systems Comments Off on The Future of Air Superiority: Inside the U.S. Air Force’s Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) Program 78 Views

The age of the fifth-generation fighter—marked by iconic platforms like the F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning II—is drawing to a close. In its place, the United States Air Force (USAF) is orchestrating a monumental leap in airpower capability through its Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program. Far from being a single aircraft, NGAD represents a highly integrated “family of systems,” centered around a sixth-generation manned fighter, complemented by advanced unmanned systems, AI-powered networks, and revolutionary propulsion technologies. With the Indo-Pacific theater increasingly becoming a central focus of U.S. defense planning, NGAD is being engineered to overcome the layered defenses and growing aerospace capabilities of strategic competitors—most notably China

The Imperative for 6th-Generation Fighters

The rapid advancement of adversarial capabilities has rendered fifth-generation fighters like the F-35 increasingly vulnerable. Modern battlefields demand aircraft that can operate in highly contested environments, where adversaries employ networked sensors, quantum computing, and precision-guided missiles. Sixth-generation fighters must prioritize survivability, range, and adaptability. For instance, the proliferation of hypersonic weapons and directed energy systems necessitates aircraft capable of striking targets from vast distances while evading detection. The next criterion could be a disproportionately higher speed of the fighter compared to previous generations of machines

Indo-Pacific Focus: Countering China’s A2/AD Networks

At the core of the NGAD initiative lies a strategic necessity: to secure air superiority in an era dominated by peer and near-peer threats. As the U.S. shifts its focus toward the Indo-Pacific, the growing complexity of Chinese Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) networks—comprised of advanced surface-to-air missiles, integrated radar systems, and fifth-generation fighters like the J-20—poses a significant challenge to traditional American air dominance.

NGAD is designed to overcome these defenses with superior stealth, speed, and strike capabilities. The next-gen platform must be capable of long-range missions, deep penetration of contested airspace, and coordinated engagement of both airborne and ground-based threats—all without being detected. One major advantage is the Extended Range of the F-47, which surpasses the F-22’s capabilities, allowing it to strike deep into contested areas without depending on vulnerable aerial refueling tankers.

Another critical feature is Survivability. With enhanced stealth and state-of-the-art electronic warfare systems, the F-47 can infiltrate highly sophisticated integrated air defense systems (IADS). Complementing this is Networked Warfare, where the F-47 integrates with space-based sensors and other joint force assets to provide real-time situational awareness and coordinated targeting.

It is not just about surviving in contested environments; it is about dominating them. Air Force Gen. Ken Wilsbach underscored that air superiority remains the “first building block” of military operations. This is especially true in a theater where China has already begun unveiling its own sixth-generation prototypes.

Operational Concept: Outgrowing the Cold War Playbook

The traditional “penetrating counter-air” model — refined during the Cold War and exemplified by the F-22 Raptor — envisioned a stealthy manned platform capable of deep penetration to destroy enemy defenses. That concept, Kendall argues, is becoming outdated. Today, the U.S. faces a far more complex threat landscape, especially from China, with increasingly sophisticated air defenses, counter-stealth technologies, and longer-range sensors.

Kendall described this shift as an “accumulation of threats” rather than a single technological breakthrough that undermines NGAD’s current concept. Still, he acknowledged that the adversary is no longer Syria or the Soviet Union — it is a peer competitor with integrated, adaptive capabilities that demand new operational thinking.

Mark Gunzinger of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments adds that legacy platforms, designed for permissive environments like post-Cold War Iraq, are ill-suited for tomorrow’s A2/AD (Anti-Access/Area Denial) battlespaces. Emerging concepts, such as the U.S. Air Force’s Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) and the UK’s Tempest, reflect this shift, blending stealth, range, and networked lethality to operate from dispersed, secure locations.

From Fighter Platform to Kill-Web Node

The Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program marks a decisive evolution from platform-centric warfare to an architecture-driven combat ecosystem. No longer conceived as a standalone fighter, the F-47 is being developed as a central “kill-web” node—a highly networked, interoperable command-and-control asset that fuses data and firepower across air, space, and cyber domains. This transformation enables the F-47 to orchestrate engagements with a range of distributed assets, including Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA)—autonomous drone wingmen that extend its sensor reach, deliver precision strikes, and serve as decoys or electronic warfare platforms.

In this kill-web construct, the F-47 links seamlessly with space-based systems for persistent surveillance, secure communications, and real-time targeting, creating a resilient mesh of multi-domain awareness. Coupled with next-generation munitions and cyber-enabled warfare capabilities, the aircraft becomes not just a shooter, but a battlefield conductor—detecting, deciding, and directing effects across domains. This shift underscores a fundamental rethinking of air dominance: survivability and lethality now hinge on connectivity, adaptability, and information superiority, rather than sheer physical performance or stealth alone.

Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA): Loyal Wingmen Reimagined

A defining innovation of the NGAD program is its deep integration with Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA)—semi-autonomous drones designed to fly alongside and support the manned sixth-generation fighter. These drones serve as force multipliers, undertaking tasks that would otherwise expose human pilots to risk. Capable of performing suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD), electronic warfare, reconnaissance, and decoy missions, CCAs significantly extend the tactical reach and survivability of the NGAD fighter.

Among the leading CCA prototypes is the XQ-58A Valkyrie, developed by Kratos Defense. This low-cost, high-performance unmanned aircraft can be commanded by the crewed NGAD jet, leveraging AI to perform coordinated maneuvers, relay intelligence, and even engage targets independently. The USAF envisions deploying swarms of such CCAs, creating a dynamic, distributed combat network where each drone enhances the situational awareness and lethality of the entire formation.

This manned-unmanned teaming concept, or MUM-T, represents a shift toward network-centric warfare, where human pilots are strategic mission commanders, directing autonomous assets across vast and complex battlespaces.

Optionally Crewed: Becoming the New Default

Analysts like J.J. Gertler of the Teal Group noted that in modern warfare, an optionally manned aircraft is almost the default assumption. Advances in networking and fly-by-wire systems mean the operator doesn’t need to sit inside the aircraft. In fact, building a cockpit often limits the aircraft’s shape, weight distribution, and survivability.

“There’s a lot to be said for designing to include reality,” Gertler said, “rather than the world as it was when you started the program.” This view reflects Kendall’s own warning against blindly following the traditional generational upgrade path. Just because NGAD is next doesn’t mean it has to look like the past.

Kendall’s cautious approach has drawn both praise and concern. While some in the Air Force’s fighter community — the so-called “fighter mafia” — may resist the idea of an uncrewed NGAD, others see his strategy as prudent. Gertler likened it to a pilot running through a final checklist before takeoff, making sure all elements align before committing to full-scale production.

Indeed, Kendall himself summed up the current phase succinctly: “We’ve got an opportunity here to really just be careful and make sure we’re on the right path before we make the final commitment.”

The F-47 Sixth-Generation Fighter: The Core of NGAD

While not officially designated, the central aircraft of the NGAD program is often referred to as the F-X or “F-47” in unofficial discussions. This next-generation fighter introduces several revolutionary advancements. One of the most significant is the inclusion of adaptive cycle engines, developed under the Adaptive Engine Transition Program (AETP) by GE Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney. These engines provide unmatched versatility, dynamically shifting between high-thrust and fuel-efficient modes, extending the operational range and mission flexibility of the aircraft.

In March 2025, Boeing secured a historic $20 billion contract to develop the F-47, beating Lockheed Martin and marking a resurgence for the aerospace giant after years of setbacks. The F-47 will serve as the centerpiece of the NGAD ecosystem. One of its standout features includes Adaptive Cycle Engines, developed under the Next-Generation Adaptive Propulsion (NGAP) program. These engines optimize fuel efficiency and thrust, enabling extended range—critical for operations in the vast Indo-Pacific.

Another hallmark feature is the aircraft’s multispectral stealth capability, which extends beyond radar evasion to include infrared and thermal signature suppression. This allows the NGAD platform to remain undetected across a broad spectrum of sensors, enhancing its survivability in hostile airspace. The fighter also features advanced sensor fusion, integrating intelligence from satellites, AWACS, ground stations, and unmanned assets to provide the pilot with a seamless, real-time operational picture. Artificial intelligence is expected to play a crucial role in assisting with decision-making, target prioritization, and threat response.

The F-47 also boasts Broadband Stealth, utilizing advanced materials and design techniques aimed at making the aircraft virtually invisible to modern radar and infrared systems. Another transformative capability is Manned-Unmanned Teaming. The F-47 will serve as a command node for Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA)—autonomous drones such as General Atomics’ RFQ-42A and Anduril’s RFQ-44A—tasked with reconnaissance, electronic warfare, and strike missions.

The F-47’s design draws inspiration from Boeing’s experimental YF-118G Bird of Prey. It features high-dihedral wings and a tailless configuration that enhances agility and stealth. Reports suggest that early prototypes have been flying since 2020, with testing efforts accelerated during the Trump administration.

Additionally, the fighter’s Modular Open Systems Architecture (MOSA) ensures that the platform can evolve over time. New technologies, software updates, and mission-specific modules can be integrated with minimal disruption, enabling rapid adaptation to emerging threats. Perhaps most impressively, the use of digital engineering allowed the Air Force to complete a full-scale prototype, which successfully flew in 2020—years ahead of what traditional development timelines would have allowed.

Digital Engineering: Revolutionizing Development

NGAD leverages digital design tools to drastically cut development timelines. Boeing’s use of CAD-based engineering and rapid prototyping enabled the F-47 to progress from concept to flight testing in record time. This mirrors the principles of the “Digital Century Series,” a model that emphasizes iterative upgrades over the long timelines and inflexible procurement cycles typical of traditional defense acquisitions.

The Air Force has already flown multiple X-plane demonstrators since 2020. These prototypes have validated emerging technologies, including AI-driven mission systems and open architecture designs that allow for easier future upgrades and system integration.

Interoperability and Global Partnerships

Although NGAD is a U.S.-led program, its success will hinge on allied interoperability, particularly with Australia, Japan, and the United Kingdom, all of whom are investing in sixth-generation technologies.

The UK’s Tempest (Global Combat Air Programme) and Japan’s F-X are pursuing parallel paths, with potential for collaboration on engines, avionics, and AI.
NATO partners may also benefit from technology transfers, particularly in sensors, electronic warfare, and CCA drone coordination.

This suggests a future ecosystem where NGAD fighters and their AI wingmen can operate seamlessly alongside allied forces, forming a cohesive air combat network in the Indo-Pacific and Europe.

Budget, Secrecy, and Operational Timelines

NGAD remains one of the most classified programs in the U.S. defense ecosystem. However, available data indicates:

The USAF has requested over $16 billion for NGAD development through FY2028.
Unit costs for the manned fighter are expected to exceed $200 million, reflecting its next-gen capabilities and stealth.
Initial operational capability (IOC) is projected for the early 2030s, though unmanned components may deploy earlier.

This investment underscores the urgency of fielding a credible deterrent to China’s air and missile forces by the end of the decade.

Challenges and Controversies

Despite its groundbreaking potential, NGAD is not without significant challenges. A major concern has been Cost. Early estimates placed the unit cost of the F-47 at a staggering $300 million—about three times that of the F-35. A programmatic pause in 2024 sought to control and reduce these costs, with new targets aiming to bring the price closer to the F-22’s $143 million per unit.

A Tension Between Cost and Capability

According to aerospace analyst Richard Aboulafia, the Air Force faces a fundamental contradiction: the need for larger, longer-range, more capable aircraft to address the Chinese threat clashes with the need for affordable, scalable solutions. “It’s two very contradictory directions,” he noted. A smaller aircraft would be cheaper but may lack the necessary reach; a larger one could break the budget.

This tension may well result in delays and a possible redesign of NGAD’s core airframe, with ripple effects across associated programs and defense industry stakeholders.

Design Uncertainty and Affordability Pressures

At the 2024 Farnborough Airshow, U.S. Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall signaled a major inflection point in the development of the Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program — the U.S. Air Force’s ambitious effort to ensure air superiority through a sixth-generation fighter aircraft. While Kendall expressed “reasonable confidence” that NGAD will include a crewed fighter, he notably left the door open for an optionally manned or even fully unmanned design — a shift that challenges traditional assumptions about fighter aircraft.

Kendall emphasized that NGAD is not a static program; its direction is still under active review. The Secretary hinted that the Air Force may need to re-evaluate the fundamental design and capability requirements, including whether a cockpit is needed at all. This suggests a potential pivot in operational concepts, driven by evolving threats, integration demands, and affordability constraints.

The rising costs of other critical modernization programs have created financial strain, and Kendall candidly acknowledged that elements of the current five-year budget plan are “not sustainable.” With NGAD projected to cost multiples of the F-35, affordability is not just a concern — it is now a strategic constraint. “We’ve got to fix that problem,” Kendall said, highlighting the need to reassess not only the NGAD platform but also its broader operational ecosystem

Infrastructure and Vulnerability

Kendall also pointed to logistical vulnerabilities associated with fielding fifth- and sixth-generation fighters. For example, F-22-class fighters require long, well-maintained runways and robust infrastructure — which could be a liability in contested or degraded environments. As such, basing flexibility and resilience of support systems are now factors shaping NGAD’s evolution.

There’s also the issue of Industrial Base Strain. Boeing’s recent troubles, including the 737 MAX grounding and delays with the KC-46 tanker program, have raised doubts about its ability to meet the NGAD program’s ambitious delivery and performance timelines. Nevertheless, Boeing’s St. Louis facility has undergone significant retrofitting to prepare for sixth-generation aircraft production.

Another concern is the supply chain resilience required to support NGAD’s advanced components. From semiconductors to rare earth materials, ensuring a secure, domestic manufacturing base will be essential to prevent vulnerabilities in future production and sustainment.

Transparency Issues have also plagued the program. Lawmakers have criticized the Air Force for combining NGAD and CCA budgets into a single line item, making it difficult to assess individual program costs. Congress has since demanded clearer budget breakdowns and reporting practices.

Strategic Implications and the Road Ahead

The broader success of NGAD hinges on its integration with other elements of national defense. One such element is the deployment of CCA Drones, with the Air Force planning to field over 1,000 of them by the 2030s. These drones will operate in a 2:1 ratio with manned fighters, significantly multiplying combat effectiveness while reducing risk to human pilots.

Joint Force Synergy is another focal point. The Navy is concurrently developing its own sixth-generation stealth fighter under the F/A-XX program. Although separate from the Air Force’s NGAD, the two programs are designed to complement each other, extending the reach and versatility of carrier air wings.

Export potential also plays a role. Former President Trump hinted at the possibility of selling “toned-down” versions of the F-47 to U.S. allies. While such a move could enhance allied capabilities and bolster defense cooperation, it also raises technology leakage concerns, especially given the F-47’s advanced and sensitive technologies.

While Lockheed Martin was not awarded the NGAD contract, the company remains heavily involved in upgrading the F-35 and F-22 platforms with NGAD-derived technologies. These updates aim to create a “fifth-generation plus” fleet that serves as a capable stopgap until the F-47 becomes fully operational.

Conclusion: A New Era of Air Dominance

NGAD represents more than a technological upgrade—it is a doctrinal revolution in how the U.S. envisions air superiority. By integrating manned fighters with AI-driven drones, adaptive engines, multispectral stealth, and modular architectures, the program is redefining what it means to dominate the skies.

The NGAD program embodies a decisive shift toward multi-domain dominance in future warfare. By fusing sixth-generation stealth capabilities, AI-driven drones, and adaptive propulsion systems, the F-47 is engineered to maintain air superiority well into the 2040s and beyond. As Gen. David Allvin aptly stated, “We are not just building another fighter—we are shaping the future of warfare.”

In an era defined by strategic rivalry, contested domains, and accelerating technological change, NGAD is the U.S. Air Force’s answer to the future. Whether leading swarms of collaborative combat drones across the Pacific or silently breaching enemy air defenses, the NGAD platform will be the spearhead of American airpower in the decades to come.

With the F-47 scheduled for operational deployment in the 2030s, the U.S. finds itself in a high-stakes race to outpace Chinese advancements. The outcome will not only determine the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific but may very well define the future of global air combat.

For further details, explore the sources cited in this article or visit the U.S. Air Force’s official NGAD program updates.