NATO’s Technological Thrust: AI, Data, Space, Hypersonics, and Quantum for Future Military Operations

As an alliance dedicated to fostering peace, security, and stability across the Euro-Atlantic region, NATO stands at the forefront of defense and security collaboration. However, the current security landscape presents a myriad of challenges, ranging from state and non-state actors to cyber threats, terrorism, and hybrid warfare. To navigate this complex environment and ensure readiness for the future, NATO is embracing emerging disruptive technologies (EDT) that have the potential to reshape military operations in the coming decades. The alliance’s strategic shift towards harnessing artificial intelligence (AI), data analytics, space capabilities, hypersonics, and quantum computing underscores its commitment to maintaining superiority in an evolving security landscape.

But today’s NATO faces a dangerous, unpredictable, and fluid security environment, with existential challenges and threats from all strategic directions including state and non-state actors; near-peer military forces; cyber threats; space; terrorism; hybrid warfare; and, information operations, sats NATO. Building an alliance capable of reacting to current and future needs over a broad range of potential operations requires a delicate balance between the needs of today and those of decades to come.

General Sir Richard Barrons, former commander of Joint Forces Command (UK), emphasizes the transformative impact of Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies on warfare. The convergence of data, processing, connectivity, AI, robotics, and other innovations will redefine the nature of conflict, requiring rapid adoption and adaptation of civil-sector-derived technology for military applications. Military transformation will largely be about the rapid adoption and adaptation of civil-sector-derived technology and methods in disruptive military applications … The future of military success will now be owned by those who conceive, design, build and operate combinations of information-based technologies to deliver new combat power.”

Emerging and Disruptive Technologies (EDT) roadmap

Getting it right begins with a clear understanding of the S&T landscape, especially the enabling and destabilising role of emerging or disruptive technology (EDT). In October 2019, Defence Ministers approved an Emerging and Disruptive Technologies (EDT) roadmap to help structure NATO’s work across key technology areas, and enable Allies to consider these technologies’ implications for deterrence and defence, capability development, legal and ethical norms, and arms control aspects.”

NATO’s science and technology organization has identified key areas of technological disruption, including data, artificial intelligence (AI), autonomy, space, hypersonics, quantum, biotechnology, and materials. These technologies are expected to enhance the alliance’s operational effectiveness by providing a knowledge and decision advantage, leveraging emergent trusted data sources, and adapting to a future security environment characterized by distributed and globally available technologies.

In the report, NATO noted how the emerging disruptive technologies (EDT) largely come under four overarching themes: intelligent, interconnected, distributed and digital.

• Intelligent: Integrated and integral artificial intelligence, analytics and decision capabilities across he technological spectrum.
  – Autonomy: Artificial intelligence-enabled autonomous systems capable of some level of autonomous decision making. Such autonomous systems may be robotic, platform based or (digital) agent-based.
  – Humanistic Intelligence: The seamless integration of psycho-social-techno systems supporting enhanced human-machine teaming and synergistic behaviours.
  – Knowledge Analytics: Advanced analytical methods (including AI) exploring large data sets and advanced mathematics to provide insights, knowledge and advice hitherto impractical.
• Interconnected: Exploitation of the network (or mesh) of overlapping real and virtual domains, including sensors, organisations, institutions, individuals, autonomous agents and processes.
  – Trusted Communications: The use of technologies such as distributed ledger technologies (e.g. blockchain), quantum key distribution (QKD), post-quantum cryptography and AI cyber-agents to ensure trusted interactions and information exchange.
  – Synergistic Systems: The development of mixed (physical or virtual) complex systems-ofsystems allowing for the creation of novel ecosystems (e.g. smart cities).
• Distributed: Decentralised and ubiquitous large scale sensing, storage, computation, decision making, research and development.
  – Edge Computing: Embedding of storage, computation and analytics/AI into agents and objects close to information sources.
  – Ubiquitous Sensing: Embedding of low (or lower cost) sensors to create large sensor networks across the human-physical-information domains.
•  Decentralised Production: Exploitation of AI-assisted design, novel materials, and (mixed material) 3D/4D printing technologies, to support just-in-time local digital manufacturing and production.
  – Democratised S&T: Reducing costs of design and production, increasing computational capabilities and the broad availability of S&T information will increase innovation and the generation of novel science.
• Digital: Blending of the human, physical and information domains to create new physiological,
  psychological, social and cultural realities.
  – Digital Twin: A digital simulacrum of physical, biological or information entities digitally linked (often in near real-time) to the original, supporting predictive analytics, experimentation and assessment.
  – Synthetic Realities: The creation of new perceived cognitive or physical realities based on the integration of psycho-socio-technical systems. Such realities may be augmented, virtual, social or cultural in nature.

Disruptive effects will most likely occur through combinations of EDTs and the complex interactions between them. The following synergies and inter-dependencies are projected to be highly influential for the development of future military capabilities:
• Data-AI-Autonomy: The synergistic combination of Autonomy, Big Data and AI using intelligent, widely distributed, and cheap sensors alongside autonomous entities (physical or virtual) will leverage new technologies and methods to yield a potential military strategic and operational decision advantage.
• Data-AI-Biotechnology: AI, in-concert with Big Data, will contribute to the design of new drugs, purposeful genetic modifications, direct manipulation of biochemical reactions, and living sensors.
• Data-AI-Materials: AI, in-concert with Big Data, will contribute to the design of new materials with unique physical properties. In particular, this will support further developments in the use of 2-D materials and novel designs.
• Data-Quantum: Over a 15 – 20-year horizon, quantum technologies will increase C4ISR data collection, processing and exploitation capabilities, through significantly increased sensor capabilities, secure communications, and computing.
• Space-Quantum: Space-based quantum sensors, facilitated by Quantum Key Distribution communication, will lead to an entirely different class of sensors suitable for deployment on satellites. Increasingly commercial, smaller, lower power, more sensitive and more distributed space-based sensor networks enabled by quantum sensors will be an essential aspect of the future military ISR architecture in 20 years.
• Space-Hypersonics-Materials: Development of exotic materials, novel designs, miniaturisation, energy storage, manufacturing methods and propulsion will be necessary to fully exploit space and hypersonic environments by reducing costs, increasing reliability, improving performance and facilitating the production of inexpensive task-tailored on-demand systems.

Here’s a breakdown of NATO’s focus on five key areas:

Artificial Intelligence (AI):

Artificial intelligence and data analytics are poised to revolutionize decision-making processes within NATO. By swiftly analyzing vast datasets, AI-powered systems can provide actionable insights, enhancing situational awareness and intelligence gathering. This capability empowers NATO forces to anticipate and respond effectively to emerging threats, enhancing operational effectiveness on the battlefield.

• Revolutionizing Decision-Making: AI algorithms can analyze vast amounts of data to identify patterns and threats, supporting faster and more informed decisions on the battlefield.
• Enhanced Situational Awareness: AI-powered systems can fuse data from various sources (satellites, drones, sensors) to create a comprehensive picture of the battlefield environment.
• Autonomous Systems: AI plays a crucial role in developing and deploying autonomous vehicles, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and other autonomous weapon systems.

Big Data and Data Analytics:

• Extracting Insights from Information: The ability to collect, store, and analyze vast amounts of data is paramount for gaining a strategic advantage.
• Cybersecurity Concerns: Data security becomes even more critical with increased reliance on data-driven operations. Robust cybersecurity measures are essential to protect sensitive information.
• Interoperability: Sharing and analyzing data effectively across different member states’ forces is crucial for coordinated operations.

Space Capabilities

Space capabilities play a pivotal role in modern military operations, enabling crucial functions such as navigation, communication, and reconnaissance. NATO’s focus on space technologies aims to strengthen resilience against space-based threats while leveraging satellite systems for enhanced operational coordination and information sharing among member states.

Space Domain Awareness:

• Securing Space Assets: Military activities are increasingly reliant on space-based infrastructure like GPS and communication satellites. Protecting these assets from disruption or attack is vital.
• Monitoring Threats: Space-based sensors can provide vital intelligence on enemy activities and missile launches.
• Ensuring Freedom of Access: NATO emphasizes the importance of ensuring free and open access to space for all member states.

Hypersonic Weapons:

The emergence of hypersonic weapons presents new challenges and opportunities for NATO. These high-speed and maneuverable weapons have the potential to evade existing defense systems, necessitating the development of robust defensive measures. Additionally, NATO is exploring offensive capabilities in hypersonics to maintain strategic deterrence in an increasingly complex security environment.

• Next-Generation Threats: Hypersonic weapons travel at extremely high speeds, posing significant challenges for traditional defense systems.
• Deterrence and Defense: Developing hypersonic capabilities can deter adversaries and potentially provide a defensive countermeasure.
• Arms Control Considerations: The development and deployment of hypersonic weapons raise concerns about escalation and potential arms races. NATO advocates for responsible development and deployment of these weapons.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg underscores the importance of technological innovation for maintaining the alliance’s edge in deterrence and defense. A roadmap for Emerging and Disruptive Technologies (EDT) has been developed to guide NATO’s work across key technology areas, addressing implications for capability development, legal and ethical norms, and arms control aspects.

The report highlights the disruptive nature of technological developments in data, AI, autonomy, space, and hypersonics, which are expected to significantly impact military capabilities within the next five to ten years. Additionally, emerging technologies such as quantum, biotechnology, and materials will influence military technology over a longer timeframe, requiring careful consideration and adaptation.

NATO quantum Strategy

Quantum computing holds immense promise for revolutionizing cryptography, communications, and data processing within NATO. With unparalleled computing power, quantum technologies can tackle complex military challenges and provide a significant advantage on the battlefield. NATO’s investment in quantum computing underscores its commitment to staying ahead in the digital arms race and maintaining technological superiority.

NATO has taken a proactive approach to harnessing the potential of quantum technologies while also addressing the associated risks. In a newly published strategy, the alliance outlines its preparations for the transformative impact of advancements in quantum computing, sensing, communications, and more. Recognizing the far-reaching implications for economies, security, and defense, NATO aims to navigate this revolutionary shift responsibly.

• Secure Communications: Quantum cryptography offers the potential for unbreakable communication channels, significantly enhancing military communications security.
• Advanced Sensors: Quantum technologies may lead to the development of highly sensitive sensors for intelligence gathering and battlefield surveillance.
• Long-Term Investment: While still in their early stages, quantum technologies hold immense potential for future military applications. NATO recognizes the need for long-term investment in this area.

The strategy emphasizes the need to balance the opportunities and challenges presented by quantum technologies. While these innovations hold promise for enhancing security and defense capabilities, they also introduce strategic competition and potential vulnerabilities. To mitigate risks and maximize benefits, NATO plans to establish a transatlantic forum for quantum technologies in defense and security, fostering collaboration with the wider quantum ecosystem.

From a cybersecurity standpoint, NATO acknowledges the dual impact of quantum technologies. Quantum encryption offers enhanced protection for data and communications, bolstering defenses against cyber threats. However, the emergence of powerful quantum computers also poses a risk to current cryptographic protocols, highlighting the need for quantum-safe cryptography.

To achieve its quantum readiness goals, NATO has outlined several desired outcomes, including identifying promising military and dual-use applications, developing interoperability frameworks, fostering cooperation among allies, and staying abreast of technological advancements. Additionally, the alliance aims to cultivate a transatlantic quantum community to engage with government, industry, and academia.

As part of its strategy, NATO prioritizes the transition to quantum-safe cryptography to safeguard critical systems against potential threats. Furthermore, the alliance commits to regularly updating its strategies, policies, and action plans to adapt to evolving quantum landscapes and counter adversarial investments and interference.

In summary, NATO’s quantum strategy reflects its commitment to leveraging emerging technologies while upholding security and resilience. By proactively addressing the opportunities and challenges of quantum advancements, the alliance aims to strengthen its capabilities and maintain its technological edge in an increasingly complex security environment.

Innovation and technology development

NATO Deputy Secretary-General Mircea Geoană emphasizes the importance of anticipating future defense needs and investing in cutting-edge technologies. The report provides insights into the future of defense, guiding research efforts to maintain NATO’s technological edge in the years ahead.

While NATO is proactive in leveraging emerging technologies, it recognizes the need to counter adversarial EDT development. Red forces may pursue different exploitation paths, necessitating continuous assessment and adaptation to maintain a technological advantage. The alliance aims to integrate EDTs effectively within enterprise and operational functions, pushing the technological edge to ensure operational success.

To support innovation and technology development, NATO launched the Innovation Fund, a multi-sovereign venture capital fund aimed at investing in early-stage startups and venture capital funds. With a focus on dual-use emerging technologies, including AI, quantum, autonomy, and biotechnology, the fund seeks to bolster NATO’s innovation ecosystem and strengthen security for over one billion citizens.

The Road Ahead

NATO’s focus on these emerging technologies reflects its commitment to maintaining a technological edge and ensuring the collective defense of its member states. Continued investment, research, and collaboration will be crucial to harnessing the full potential of these technologies for responsible and effective military operations.

By prioritizing these cutting-edge technologies, NATO is adapting to the evolving security landscape and positioning itself as a leading force for global security and stability. Embracing AI, data analytics, space capabilities, hypersonics, and quantum computing will not only enhance NATO’s military capabilities but also reinforce its role as a proactive and forward-thinking alliance in the 21st century.

Conclusion

In conclusion, NATO’s embrace of emerging disruptive technologies reflects its commitment to remaining at the forefront of defense and security innovation. By navigating the complexities of technological disruption and investing in future capabilities, NATO aims to ensure the collective security and stability of its member states in an ever-changing security landscape.

As NATO continues to invest in these technologies, it remains committed to collaborative partnerships, innovation, and adaptation to emerging threats. By harnessing the power of AI, data, space, hypersonics, and quantum computing, NATO is poised to navigate the complexities of modern warfare and ensure the security of its member states in an increasingly dynamic geopolitical environment.