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Climate change is not just an environmental concern but one of the most significant existential threats facing humanity today. Its impact extends far beyond rising temperatures and sea levels, profoundly influencing global stability and security. The intricate link between climate change and conflict is increasingly evident, making it a crucial issue for policymakers, scientists, and the global community to address.
Compelling Evidence of Rapid Climate Change
The era we live in is witnessing unparalleled climatic shifts, marking it as the warmest period in the history of modern civilization. Scientific data reveals that the global surface temperature has surged more rapidly since 1970 than at any other time in at least the last 2,000 years. For instance, temperatures from 2011 to 2020 exceeded those of the previous multi-century warm period, approximately 6,500 years ago. NASA highlights the current warming trend as particularly significant because it is very likely human-induced and proceeding at an unprecedented rate over the past 1,300 years.
Additionally, global mean sea levels have risen faster since 1900 than in any preceding century in at least the last 3,000 years. Since the onset of the Industrial Revolution, the acidity of surface ocean waters has increased by about 30%. An international research team, including scientists from ETH Zurich, has demonstrated that nearly all the world’s glaciers are thinning and losing mass, with the rate of ice loss accelerating. Between 2000 and 2019, glaciers worldwide lost an average of 267 gigatonnes (billion tonnes) of ice per year—enough to submerge the entire surface area of Switzerland under six meters of water annually. The most rapidly melting glaciers are in Alaska, Iceland, and the Alps, with significant impacts also seen in the Pamir mountains, the Hindu Kush, and the Himalayas.
A study led by Raphael Neukom from the Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research at the University of Bern, published in Nature, concludes that “not only are average global temperatures in the 20th century higher than ever before in at least 2,000 years, but also that a warming period is now affecting the whole planet simultaneously for the first time. And the speed of global warming has never been as high as it is today.”
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2021 report shows that emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities are responsible for approximately 1.1°C of warming between 1850 and 1900. It finds that, averaged over the next 20 years, global temperature is expected to reach or exceed 1.5°C of heating. In 2019, atmospheric CO2 concentrations were higher than at any time in at least 2 million years, and concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide were higher than at any time in the last 800,000 years
Climate Change: An Existential Threat
Climate change’s most apparent effects—rising temperatures, melting polar ice, and increasing sea levels—are already causing widespread environmental disruption. However, these physical changes are just the beginning. The true existential threat of climate change lies in its ability to exacerbate existing global issues and create new ones, destabilizing societies and threatening human survival.
Scientific evidence also shows an increase in extremes such as heatwaves, heavy precipitation, droughts, and tropical cyclones attributable to human influence. Climate change is enhancing the frequency and intensity of these extreme weather events, including droughts, wildfires, heatwaves, and intense rainstorms. These extreme events not only threaten immediate environmental stability but also compound risks of humanitarian disasters, conflicts, food and water shortages, and mass migrations.
For instance, climate change is exacerbating the natural water cycle, leading to more intense rainfall and associated flooding, as well as severe droughts in many regions. The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emphasizes the need for global carbon neutrality by 2050 to prevent a rise in global temperatures by 1.5 degrees Celsius, thereby avoiding some of the most devastating effects of climate change.
Extreme weather events in a warmer world have the potential for greater impacts and can compound with other drivers to raise the risk of humanitarian disasters, conflict, water and food shortages, population migration, labor shortfalls, price shocks, and power outages. Rising sea levels, coupled with extended droughts leading to failed crops and food shortages, will drive millions to migrate to regions faring better. The UN’s IPCC has stated that the world needs to become carbon neutral by 2050 to prevent global temperatures from rising 1.5 degrees Celsius, which would lock in many of the most catastrophic effects of climate change.
India was the seventh worst-hit country due to extreme weather events in 2019, according to a global Climate Risk Index released in September 2021. The index ranks countries based on their vulnerability in terms of fatalities and economic losses. The top six most vulnerable countries in the Climate Risk Index 2021 are Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Bahamas, Japan, Malawi, and Afghanistan. Although India improved its ranking from fifth in CRI 2020 to seventh, it had the highest number of fatalities (2,267) and the largest economic loss (68,812 million USD) in 2019 due to climate change-induced extreme weather events such as storms, floods, heatwaves, and cyclones.
The report by Germanwatch shows that over 475,000 people lost their lives as a direct result of more than 11,000 extreme weather events globally, losing around 2.56 trillion USD in purchasing power parities in the past 20 years between 2000 and 2019. Puerto Rico, Myanmar, and Haiti were the top three most affected countries during this period, with India ranking twentieth in the long-term CRI. Eight of the ten countries most affected between 2000 and 2019 are developing countries with low or lower-middle-income per capita.
Resource Scarcity
One of the primary ways climate change drives conflict is through resource scarcity. As temperatures rise and weather patterns become more unpredictable, water sources are drying up, agricultural yields are diminishing, and fisheries are depleting. This scarcity of essential resources like water and food can lead to competition and conflict, both within and between nations. For example, the Syrian civil war, which began in 2011, was preceded by a severe drought that displaced farmers and exacerbated social tensions.
The situation in the Himalayas is particularly alarming. Romain Hugonnet, lead author of a significant study and researcher at ETH Zurich and the University of Toulouse, explains that during the dry season, glacial meltwater is crucial for feeding major waterways such as the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Indus rivers. Currently, increased melting provides a buffer for people in the region, but if Himalayan glacier shrinkage continues to accelerate, populous countries like India and Bangladesh could face water or food shortages in a few decades. Such changes underscore the urgency of addressing climate change to prevent catastrophic impacts on these vital water sources.
Displacement and Migration
Climate-induced displacement is another critical concern. As sea levels rise, coastal communities are forced to relocate, and extreme weather events, such as hurricanes and floods, destroy homes and livelihoods. This mass displacement creates “climate refugees” who migrate to safer areas, often straining resources in their new locations and leading to conflicts with existing populations. The United Nations estimates that there could be up to 200 million climate refugees by 2050.
Climate Change as a Driver of Conflict and Violence
Climate change is not only one of the biggest existential threats facing the world but also a major driver of current and future global conflicts. The UN’s IPCC, in a landmark report, warned that growing competition for resources in a world under climate change could lead to conflict. Climate change is an important catalyst for war, terrorism, and major migration patterns, as Dutch armed forces chief Tom Middendorp has noted.
Craig Anderson, an Iowa State University Distinguished Professor of Psychology, and Andreas Miles-Novelo, an ISU graduate student and lead author, identified three ways climate change will increase the likelihood of violence. Their research, published in the journal Current Climate Change Reports, outlines that higher temperatures increase irritability and hostility, leading to violence. The other two routes are indirect and stem from the effects of climate change on natural disasters, failing crops, and economic instability. Natural disasters do not directly increase violence, but the economic disruption, displacement of families, and strain on natural resources that result are problematic.
One indirect way natural disasters increase violence is through the development of babies, children, and adolescents into violence-prone adults due to poor living conditions, disrupted families, and inadequate prenatal and child nutrition. These risk factors will become more prevalent as a result of climate change-induced disasters such as hurricanes, droughts, floods, water shortages, and changing agricultural practices.
Another indirect effect is “eco-migration,” where large groups of people are forced to migrate due to extensive and long-term natural disasters. This creates intergroup conflicts over resources, leading to political violence, civil wars, or wars between nations. Anderson notes that we are already seeing the migration of large groups in response to physical, economic, or political instability resulting from ecological disasters. The conflict in Syria is one example where differences between migrants and the local population can escalate into tension and violence. As these conflicts increase, combined with the availability of weapons of mass destruction, the results could be devastating.
Climate Change and Global Conflicts
The link between climate change and conflict is not just theoretical. Numerous case studies illustrate how environmental stressors contribute to violence and instability.Senior military figures worldwide have warned that climate change is expected to cause a major refugee crisis, representing one of the greatest security threats ever faced. It has already been identified as a contributing factor to the current migrant crisis dominating Europe.
Climate change not only increases the number of conflicts military forces need to confront but also requires changes in strategy due to the increased need for disaster management. Additionally, it degrades military effectiveness by compromising the environments in which they operate. To mitigate these issues, it is crucial to provide appropriate aid to refugees and support eco-migrants in their relocation to new regions where they can be productive and healthy.
Malthusian Overpopulation theory of War
Thomas Malthus’ population theory suggests that war results from the expanding human population outstripping available resources. According to Malthus, population grows geometrically, while food supply increases arithmetically, leading to resource scarcity. Preventative measures, such as rational family planning, aim to control population growth. However, when these measures fail, positive checks like war, famine, and disease reduce the population to balance it with resources.
This theory overlaps with the “ecological imbalance” theory, which links conflicts to ecological stress from resource overexploitation. However, Dr. Vesselin Popovski of the United Nations University argues that the direct link between climate change and conflict lacks robust evidence. He suggests that political and economic factors are the primary causes of conflict, and while environmental issues can exacerbate these conflicts, they are not the root cause.
Popovski also notes that resource scarcity might encourage cooperation rather than conflict, as seen in the Lake Chad and Nile Basins. Although climate change has not been definitively proven to cause conflicts, it is recognized as a potential significant driver of future conflicts if not managed properly.
The Risk of War in Africa Due to Climate Change
A study published in Science by researchers Tamma Carleton and Solomon Hsiang from the University of Berkeley found that rising temperatures in sub-Saharan Africa since 1980 have raised the risk of conflict by 11%. Their study reviewed over 100 other studies on the social and economic impacts of climate change and concluded that climate is a major factor influencing social and economic outcomes, often with first-order consequences.
Based on statistical analysis of data from a 2009 study, they claimed that the risk of armed conflict will rise by roughly 54%, or an additional 393,000 battle deaths, by 2030 if future temperature trends continue. Earlier researchers Marshall B. Burke and colleagues from several American universities found a relationship between past internal conflict in sub-Saharan Africa and variations in temperature, predicting that a 1% increase in temperature leads to a 4.5% increase in civil war in the same year and a 0.9% increase in the following year. By 2030, this could translate to a 54% increase in armed conflict incidence in the region. The researchers argue that economic uncertainties resulting from temperature-related yield declines in agriculture-dependent societies drive this conflict, as economic welfare is consistently associated with conflict incidence.
The Sahel Region
The Sahel region in Africa is a prime example. This semi-arid region has experienced prolonged droughts, leading to the loss of livelihoods for millions of farmers and herders. The resulting economic desperation has fueled armed conflict and the rise of extremist groups. Climate change has intensified competition for water and grazing land, exacerbating ethnic and religious tensions.
The Syrian Drought and Conflict
A study by Earth scientists at Columbia University, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, found that climate change is implicated in the Syrian conflict. The 2007−2010 drought was the worst in the instrumental record, causing widespread crop failure and a mass migration of farming families to urban centers. For Syria, marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest.
Potential Future War in the Arctic
The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of the globe. In the past 100 years, average Arctic temperatures have increased at nearly twice the global average rate. In 2012, Arctic sea ice reached its smallest extent in recorded history. In the Arctic, melting ice is opening new shipping routes and exposing previously inaccessible natural resources. The reduction in ice extent has led to increased human activity in resource extraction, fishing, and tourism. As global warming melts the Arctic ice, opening up new shipping trade routes and real estate, intense resource competition over untapped reserves of oil, natural gas, and minerals has started.
Though the Region is regulated with international rules regarding territorial jurisdiction of the coastal states, Nevertheless, there remains a disputed and undivided geographical area around the North Pole with potentially substantial hydrocarbon sources. Thus, there is potential for interstate conflict in the Arctic area related to unresolved border issues, control of the maritime routes, and demarcation of the resource-rich continental shelves under the Arctic Ocean.
While this presents economic opportunities, it also heightens geopolitical tensions. Countries with Arctic territories, such as Russia, Canada, and the United States, are increasingly competing for control over these resources and new trade routes, raising the potential for conflict. Russia is acting quickly to dominate the Arctic geopolitically and militarily. The US has intensified its intelligence activities there in response, raising concerns about potential conflicts in the Arctic.
Future Wars and Security Implications
As climate change progresses, the risk of future wars increases. The military community is already recognizing the security implications of a warming planet. The U.S. Department of Defense, for instance, refers to climate change as a “threat multiplier” that exacerbates existing vulnerabilities and tensions.
Conflicts and War Further Contribute to Climate Change
Armed conflicts often disrupt or reverse economic development, leading to assumptions that they reduce emissions contributing to climate change. However, as Eoghan Darbyshire and Doug Weir explain, economic output alone doesn’t fully capture the environmental impacts of conflicts. Emissions during conflicts depend on the methods, locations, and intensity of the fighting.
Oil infrastructure, frequently targeted in conflicts, releases significant emissions through fires and spills. For example, the 1991 Gulf War’s oil fires contributed over 2% of global fossil fuel CO2 emissions for that year, with far-reaching consequences, including accelerated melting of Tibetan glaciers due to soot deposition. Similarly, conflicts in Colombia, Libya, Syria, and Iraq have seen oil infrastructure weaponized, exacerbating emissions.
Warfare also targets vegetation, releasing stored carbon when forests are destroyed. Historical use of chemical defoliants and mechanical clearance in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos led to the loss of 14-44% of Vietnam’s forest cover. More recently, forest burning in Nagorno-Karabakh, crop attacks in northeast Syria, and fires in protected areas of Israel have further contributed to carbon emissions.
Humanitarian efforts in conflict zones also have a large carbon footprint, primarily from fuel use for logistics and electricity generation. For instance, in 2017, fuel costs for aid delivery were estimated at $1.2 billion, representing 5% of aid expenditure. Displaced persons camps can lead to deforestation, as seen near Rohingya camps in Bangladesh, prompting donors and agencies to explore nature-based solutions.
Protracted conflicts can lock in significant sources of emissions. Lack of development, external investment, and weak governance often result in continued use of old, polluting technologies. Military activities can cause long-lasting land use changes, such as vegetation clearance along contact lines in eastern Ukraine and Nagorno-Karabakh, and scorched earth policies in Myanmar’s Rakhine State. These actions impact fragile areas and contribute to soil erosion and desertification, as observed in Syria, Bosnia, Iraq, and Afghanistan, reducing the carbon storage potential of soils.
Conflicts also affect marine emissions through oil spills impacting coastal ecosystems, increased wastewater discharge from urban damage, and sediment runoff from deforestation and land degradation. These factors underscore the complex and significant environmental impacts of armed conflicts on climate change.
Climate Change and the Military
Climate change impacts the military by increasing the number of conflicts it needs to confront and changing the character of these conflicts. The military must also undertake more disaster management tasks, which can degrade its effectiveness by compromising the environment in which it operates.
Military Preparedness
Nations are beginning to incorporate climate change into their national security strategies. This includes investing in climate-resilient infrastructure, developing response plans for climate-related disasters, and enhancing military capabilities to operate in extreme weather conditions. However, much more needs to be done to prepare for the complex and multifaceted threats posed by climate change.
International Cooperation
Addressing the security risks of climate change requires unprecedented levels of international cooperation. Global initiatives like the Paris Agreement aim to mitigate climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Still, they must be complemented by efforts to build resilience in vulnerable regions, support climate refugees, and promote peacebuilding initiatives.
Conclusion
Climate change is undeniably one of the biggest existential threats facing humanity. Its impact on global stability and security is profound, driving resource scarcity, displacement, and conflict.The serious and compounding effects of climate change include extreme weather, rising sea levels, water scarcity, food shortages, forced migration, and global security threats. This multifaceted issue demands urgent attention and comprehensive strategies to mitigate its impacts and adapt to its inevitable consequences.
As we continue to grapple with the consequences of a warming planet, it is imperative that we recognize and address the intricate link between climate change and conflict. Through proactive measures, international cooperation, and a commitment to sustainable development, we can mitigate the risks and work towards a more secure and stable future for all. The convergence of environmental degradation, economic instability, and social conflict underscores the necessity for coordinated global efforts to address the existential threat of climate change.
References and Resources also include:
https://ceobs.org/how-does-war-contribute-to-climate-change/
