NATO-Russia standoff amidst Ukraine crisis bring back the fears of Global crisis

Over the last few years, Russia and NATO have been caught in something of a security trap, where neither trusts the other’s intentions and thus tries to build up more military power to deter its rival. Although both think of their actions as defensive, their enemy sees pure aggression—and the cycle dangerously repeats. Tensions skyrocketed between NATO and Russia following the annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in early 2014 and the backing of a separatist uprising in east Ukraine — a move that prompted a military conflict that is still unresolved. Russia’s war games and regular military exercises have struck fear in its neighbors, including Poland and the Baltics.

 

Jens Stoltenberg, secretary general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), said that Russia should withdraw all troops from war-torn Eastern Ukraine, where armed conflict between Moscow-backed separatists and Ukrainians has been ongoing for more than five years. “NATO states very clearly that Russia has a special responsibility to withdraw all their troops, all their officers,” Stoltenberg said while visiting Odesa, a port city on the Black Sea in Southern Ukraine.

 

A report by Atlantic Council Working Group, found irrefutable evidence of direct Russian military involvement in eastern Ukraine. It found that Russian training camps along the border are used to send military equipment and Russian soldiers into Ukraine. Further it found that a variety of Russian manufactured arms and munitions—not used by the Ukrainian military—have appeared in the hands of separatists, including shoulder launched surface-to-air missiles (MANPADS), various types of rocket launchers, anti-tank guided missiles, landmines, and various small arms.

 

Meanwhile, by mid-2018, NATO and the United States had deployed battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and other heavy weapons and around 4,500 soldiers in the three Baltic states and Poland, as well as several thousand armored troops in Eastern Europe to prevent Russian aggression.  As the media put it, ‘a company’s worth of equipment – enough for about 150 soldiers – would be stored in each of the three Baltic nations: Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Enough for a company or possibly a battalion – about 750 soldiers – would be located in Poland, Romania, Bulgaria and possibly Hungary’.

 

That will also raise the stakes for Russia, which would surely see any increased buildup as an act of aggression.  “It is going to be the most aggressive step of Pentagon and NATO since the end of the last century’s Cold War,” the Russian media quoted Yuri Yakubov, the Coordinator of the Department of the General Inspectors of the Russian Defense Ministry, as saying. “And there will be nothing left for Russia but to build up its might and means at strategic western locations,” added the senior Defense Ministry official.

 

Russia reinforced its military along the perimeter of its Western border, including new tank, artillery and aviation units. The Russian Ground Forces’ guided missile brigade stationed in the westernmost Kaliningrad region were reequipped with the Iskander-M ballistic missile systems, Yakubov added, and Russia’s combined forces in Belarus will also be considerably reequipped.

 

NATO has been the subject of a number of statements from world leaders questioning its effectiveness, with French President Emmanuel Macron claiming the organisation was ‘brain-dead’ and US President Donald Trump criticising European contributions to the organisations. Relations within the organisation have also been strained by Turkey’s growing closeness to Russia and its decision to buy the Russian S-400 Air Defence system, resulting in the country’s expulsion from the F-35 programme.

 

Sarah Raine, consulting senior fellow for geopolitics and strategy at the the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), told CNBC that Russia is still a threat to NATO. “Russia remains a threat both in conventional terms — as evidenced by its annexation of Crimea and its persistent probing of European air space — as well as in more hybrid terms, through, for example, its use of cyber proxies. But threats can and should be handled through a range of policy responses,” she said.

 

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg insisted  that a massive transfer of US and allied troops to Eastern Europe as part of a military exercise was not aimed at Russia. About 37,000 soldiers from 18 countries are to participate in the US-run manoeuvre dubbed Defender Europe 2020. This is “the largest deployment of US troops to Europe in more than 25 years,” Stoltenberg told AFP. The exercise “shows the strong US commitment to NATO and to the freedom and security of Europe,” he added. The exercise will take place in May and June, mainly in Germany, Poland and the Baltic States. The US will move 20,000 soldiers to Europe in the coming months

 

In recent years, European NATO allies have sought to step up their contributions to the organisations in the face of US pressure to share more of the burden. According to the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) report The Military Balance 2020, around two-thirds of allies are aiming to reach the recommended 2% of GDP by 2024. NATO is also funnelling money into research and development to maintain its edge and adapt to new threats, with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in the past saying that the organisation was pushing for 20% of budgets to be spent on research and development.