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Geothermal Power Market Outlook (2025–2034)
Geothermal energy—once seen as a niche renewable—has entered a new era of global relevance. From next-generation drilling and heat exchange technologies to substantial investment surges and strategic defense deployments, the market is undergoing a transformative expansion. Global capacity is projected to reach 24 GW by 2030, representing a 50% increase from 2023, with the decade ahead poised to redefine energy systems, climate action, and national security priorities.
The global geothermal power market is undergoing a steady and promising expansion. Valued at USD 6.62 billion in 2024, the market is projected to grow to USD 6.95 billion by 2025, and further reach USD 10.78 billion by 2034. This represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% over the forecast period, signaling strong investor and policy confidence in geothermal as a sustainable, scalable energy solution.
Geothermal energy, harvested from the Earth’s internal heat, is increasingly seen as a critical component of the clean energy transition. This sector offers a high-capacity, low-emission, and reliable power source that can operate independently of weather conditions—unlike solar or wind.
Breakthrough Technologies Driving the Geothermal Revolution
The geothermal industry is being reshaped by cutting-edge technologies that address historic constraints of location, cost, and complexity. Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) have emerged as a cornerstone technology, enabling heat extraction from hot, dry rock in regions previously considered nonviable. By injecting fluid into engineered reservoirs, EGS turns previously untapped thermal gradients into reliable power—expanding geothermal’s reach far beyond traditional volcanic zones.
Advanced Geothermal Systems (AGS) use sealed, closed-loop boreholes to circulate heat-exchange fluids underground without interacting with rock or groundwater. This design avoids induced seismicity and contamination, aligning geothermal with strict environmental and permitting regulations. AGS installations are already proving their worth at strategic sites, including the U.S. Air Force’s Joint Base San Antonio, where AGS enhances both grid resilience and operational energy independence.
A third frontier—Superhot Rock (SHR) geothermal—targets zones deeper than five kilometers and hotter than 374°C, where heat is abundant and potentially cost-competitive with fossil fuels. Quaise Energy’s millimeter-wave drilling aims to reach these energy-dense layers, opening the possibility of universal geothermal access with orders-of-magnitude more power per well.
Complementing these developments, binary cycle power plants and geothermal heat pumps (GHPs) are scaling fast. Binary plants, which transfer subsurface heat to a low-boiling-point fluid, are clean, scalable, and suited to lower-temperature sites. GHPs are quietly revolutionizing buildings by delivering high-efficiency heating and cooling—making geothermal increasingly present in everyday infrastructure, from homes to defense facilities.
Global Growth Hotspots and Market Momentum
Geothermal energy is entering a new phase of global expansion, driven by policy reforms, technological breakthroughs, and rising investor confidence. North America leads this charge, with the United States maintaining its position as the world’s top geothermal producer—home to over 4 GW of installed capacity. Yet, this represents only a small fraction of its estimated 500 GW of untapped potential. The western U.S.—particularly states like Utah, Nevada, Colorado, and North Dakota—features some of the most geothermally favorable geology on the planet. Here, high heat flows and shallow subsurface temperatures are converging with advanced drilling technologies and supportive federal incentives to unlock a vast domestic energy reserve.
Canada is quickly emerging as a serious geothermal player. Provinces such as British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Yukon, and Nova Scotia are actively assessing and developing geothermal resources comparable to those across the U.S. border. In 2024, the Canadian government allocated more than CA$50 million to geothermal development, catalyzing projects like Saskatchewan’s Deep Earth Energy initiative in partnership with SLB, which is pioneering the deployment of next-generation geothermal technologies at commercial scale.
Globally, the momentum is accelerating. Indonesia is on track to reach 7.2 GW of capacity by 2025, reinforcing its role as a geothermal superpower. Kenya, with its Olkaria geothermal complex already delivering 800 MW, is expanding both baseload capacity and industrial heat applications. Turkey, meanwhile, has demonstrated an impressive 80% year-over-year increase in geothermal well development, signaling a commitment to scaling fast. These nations are leveraging geothermal not only for electricity generation but also for district heating, industrial processes, and grid stabilization—highlighting its flexibility and strategic value.
What’s driving this global surge is a dramatic shift in economics and market perception. Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) are projected to deliver electricity at under $50/MWh by 2035—on par with combined-cycle natural gas but without the emissions. Ground-source heating and cooling systems now promise returns on investment within 5 to 15 years, appealing to both residential users and energy-intensive industries. As a result, capital is flowing in. In the first quarter of 2025 alone, the U.S. geothermal sector attracted $1.7 billion in new investments, while global geothermal financing topped $2 billion in 2024. Once considered a niche resource, geothermal is now a maturing, bankable pillar of the clean energy transition.
A Market Tipping Point for Economics and Investment
Geothermal is no longer a fringe investment. With EGS projected to deliver power at $50/MWh by 2035, it is now cost-competitive with natural gas, minus the emissions. Heating and cooling systems already deliver returns on investment (ROI) within 5–15 years, and the sector no longer depends heavily on subsidies.
In Q1 2025 alone, U.S. geothermal investment exceeded US$1.7 billion, part of a global surge that reached nearly US$2 billion in 2024. Companies like Fervo Energy are setting new benchmarks, with its 500 MW Cape Station in Utah now delivering commercial-scale electricity at US$79/MWh—without incentives. Strategic collaborations such as SLB and Deep Earth Energy Production’s next-gen geothermal projects in Saskatchewan signal a growing private sector appetite for geothermal deployment.
Policy has caught up with technology. U.S. leasing reforms are streamlining development across over 100,000 acres in geothermal-rich zones like Utah, Alaska, and parts of Latin America. Meanwhile, public-private partnerships and permitting reform are enabling faster buildout across continental and developing economies.
Geothermal Power Market Growth Factors
The global geothermal power market is experiencing robust growth driven by a confluence of environmental, economic, and policy-related factors. One of the most significant drivers is the increasing stringency of environmental regulations worldwide. Governments are actively discouraging fossil fuel usage and encouraging clean energy alternatives through incentives such as financial subsidies, tax rebates, and regulatory support. As fossil fuel prices continue to fluctuate and greenhouse gas emissions rise, the appeal of stable, cost-effective, and low-carbon geothermal power becomes more compelling. With its high capacity factor and ability to deliver baseload energy, geothermal power is uniquely positioned among renewables to meet long-term global energy demand.
The rising global demand for electricity is another core growth factor. Nations around the world are transitioning from conventional to renewable sources to ensure energy security and sustainability. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), geothermal electricity generation is expected to grow by an average of 2% annually. Countries such as Turkey, Kenya, and Indonesia are emerging as key players in the sector due to their abundant geothermal resources and proactive government policies. Additionally, regions in Asia Pacific, North America, and Europe are significantly investing in geothermal energy, recognizing its potential to deliver clean power with minimal environmental impact.
Furthermore, the increasing adoption of geothermal-based heating and cooling systems—such as district heating networks and ground-source heat pumps—is adding momentum to market growth. These systems offer high energy efficiency and help reduce reliance on fossil fuels for temperature control in residential, commercial, and industrial settings. As urban centers and industries seek sustainable ways to manage heating and cooling needs, geothermal solutions are becoming an attractive alternative.
Finally, the broader shift toward decarbonization and climate resilience is accelerating investments in geothermal infrastructure. With low atmospheric emissions, minimal land use, and zero liquid discharge, geothermal energy offers numerous advantages over other renewable sources like wind, bioenergy, and hydropower. As funding from government bodies, private institutions, and global alliances increases, more geothermal projects are being launched across the globe. This growing ecosystem of support—combined with advancing drilling and energy conversion technologies—is expected to significantly scale the market during the forecast period.
Market Segments Overview
Technological Shifts and Plant Types
Geothermal energy is undergoing a quiet revolution driven by rapid technological advancements and diversification in power plant types. At the forefront of this shift are binary cycle power plants, which have gained significant momentum for their adaptability and environmental benefits. Unlike traditional steam-based systems, binary cycle plants utilize a secondary fluid—typically with a low boiling point such as isobutane—that is vaporized through heat exchange with geothermal fluids. This vapor drives turbines to generate electricity, and both fluids are subsequently recycled, minimizing environmental disruption. As of 2024, the United States had deployed 93 binary generators compared to 79 conventional steam generators, signaling a clear pivot toward this technology.
The geothermal power market is broadly segmented into binary cycle, flash steam, and dry steam power plants, each serving specific geological and thermal profiles. Binary cycle plants are projected to experience the most substantial growth over the coming decade, primarily due to their compatibility with low- to moderate-temperature geothermal reservoirs, which are more abundant and geographically widespread than high-temperature fields. This characteristic significantly broadens the global deployment potential of geothermal energy, allowing countries without volcanic zones to participate in the clean energy transition.
While binary plants lead in terms of future scalability, flash steam plants—which convert high-pressure hot water into steam upon surface depressurization—are expected to be the fastest-growing plant segment by output. Available in single, double, or triple-flash configurations, these systems deliver high efficiency where conditions allow. Their ability to extract maximum energy from high-temperature geothermal sources makes them economically attractive, particularly in tectonically active regions such as the Pacific Ring of Fire. In contrast, dry steam plants, which utilize naturally occurring steam, remain limited to unique geothermal fields like The Geysers in California but continue to deliver reliable baseload capacity.
Despite the legacy of steam-based technologies, the transition toward binary systems—accelerated since around 2020—is reshaping the industry landscape. The increasing integration of digital monitoring systems, AI-driven reservoir modeling, and repurposed oil & gas infrastructure is further enhancing the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of binary cycle deployments. This evolving technology mix underscores geothermal’s growing versatility, with binary systems emerging as the cornerstone of a more inclusive and resilient global geothermal energy strategy.
End User Insights
In terms of end users, the industrial segment is projected to hold the largest market share over the forecast period. The expanding use of geothermal energy in sectors such as gold mining, milk pasteurization, and food dehydration is driving this growth. Industries increasingly recognize geothermal power as a reliable, sustainable, and cost-effective energy source.
Applications are diverse. The cement and lumber industries, for instance, utilize geothermal heat for material drying processes, while pulp and paper, food processing, and chemical manufacturing also benefit from geothermal’s consistent heat output. The ability to provide high thermal loads without dependency on weather conditions makes geothermal particularly valuable for industrial operations requiring continuous energy.
As industrial demand for clean and resilient energy sources rises, geothermal power is expected to play a central role in decarbonizing energy-intensive manufacturing and production processes. With the growing push toward sustainable operations, many companies are looking at geothermal as a long-term solution to meet both energy and environmental targets.
Regional Insights: Asia Pacific and North America Lead the Geothermal Charge
The current global landscape is led by the United States (3,937 MW), with large-scale sites such as The Geysers and Utah’s EGS-driven Cape Station. Indonesia follows closely with over 2,600 MW installed and a staggering 28,000 MW in untapped reserves. The Philippines, a volcanic archipelago, boasts more than 1,900 MW and is pushing forward with binary geothermal technologies. Turkey, while smaller in capacity, remains the fastest-growing geothermal market, registering record year-on-year growth.
The Asia Pacific region continues to dominate the global geothermal power market, holding the largest market share—approximately 34% in 2024. Driven by a combination of rising energy demand, rapid urbanization, and aggressive government policies aimed at decarbonizing the grid, the region is poised for steady growth. Market size is projected to expand from USD 2.57 billion in 2025 to USD 3.99 billion by 2034, sustaining a healthy CAGR of 5%.
China is emerging as a key player, advancing its geothermal capabilities through investments in next-generation solutions such as Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS). Meanwhile, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Japan are rapidly scaling their geothermal sectors by leveraging abundant subterranean heat reserves, fostering public-private partnerships, and streamlining permitting frameworks.
North America, which held 32% of the global market share in 2024, is projected to be the fastest-growing region through 2034. The United States anchors this expansion, propelled by a robust policy ecosystem that includes tax incentives, direct subsidies, and federal leasing reforms. Technological advancements in drilling and well monitoring are unlocking new reserves, while oil and gas infrastructure is increasingly being repurposed for geothermal energy production—an example of cross-sector innovation accelerating the green transition.
Canada is also emerging as a geothermal contender. In 2024 alone, more than CA$50 million in funding was committed across provinces including British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Yukon, and Nova Scotia. These efforts mark a transition from pilot projects to scalable commercial operations.
Global Growth Hotspots: A Strategic Renewable Surge
Globally, geothermal momentum is accelerating across both emerging and mature energy markets. The United States retains its leadership position with 4 GW of installed capacity—yet this represents less than 1% of its estimated 500 GW potential. Western states such as Nevada, Utah, Colorado, and North Dakota are becoming epicenters of activity thanks to ideal geologic conditions and expanded access to federal lands.
Internationally, the geothermal landscape is heating up. Indonesia aims to reach 7.2 GW of installed capacity by 2025, positioning itself as a global leader in geothermal deployment. Kenya continues to expand its flagship 800 MW Olkaria complex, underscoring its reliance on geothermal as a clean, stable power source. Turkey, meanwhile, is experiencing remarkable momentum, with an 80% year-over-year increase in well development—driven by strong investor confidence and supportive policy frameworks.
Together, these developments illustrate that geothermal is no longer a niche technology—it is a foundational pillar of national energy strategies across the globe, valued for its baseload reliability, low emissions, and increasing cost competitiveness.
Geothermal’s Military and Strategic Value
The energy security imperative is driving military interest in geothermal as well. Defense facilities demand 24/7, mission-critical power that’s secure from grid failure or cyberattack. Geothermal fits this profile perfectly—offering decentralized, self-sustaining, and low-profile energy sources.
The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) is increasingly deploying geothermal at forward operating bases and critical installations, including partnerships for AGS deployment at Joint Base San Antonio. The U.S. Army’s Climate Strategy also lists geothermal as a key component for achieving net-zero energy installations by 2035.
Moreover, geothermal’s underground infrastructure makes it inherently resilient to physical and cyber threats, which are escalating across global conflict zones. With strategic military bases often located near tectonic or volcanic regions, geothermal offers both tactical energy and emissions-free heat for barracks, command centers, and critical infrastructure.
Key Players Shaping the Geothermal Power Market
The global geothermal power landscape is being shaped by a diverse mix of established energy giants and specialized innovators, each contributing to the sector’s rapid evolution.
Calpine Corporation, one of the largest producers of geothermal electricity in the U.S., continues to lead development at The Geysers in California—the world’s largest geothermal complex. With a focus on baseload power and long-term grid stability, Calpine remains a cornerstone of America’s geothermal output.
Ormat Technologies Inc. stands as a global leader in geothermal power plant design, development, and operation. With facilities spanning the U.S., Kenya, Indonesia, and Guatemala, Ormat is also advancing binary cycle technology and integrated solutions for electricity and direct-use heat.
Enel Green Power North America Inc., a subsidiary of Italy-based Enel Group, brings significant international expertise to the U.S. market. Its growing geothermal portfolio is part of a broader clean energy strategy that blends solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal into hybrid power solutions.
Gradient Resources, focused on geothermal exploration and development in the western United States, is pioneering new reservoir discovery techniques and EGS deployment to tap into previously inaccessible resources.
Toshiba International Corporation plays a critical role on the technology front, supplying high-efficiency steam turbines and power generation equipment for geothermal plants worldwide. Their innovations are helping drive down cost and improve system reliability.
EthosEnergy Group supports the geothermal sector through services such as turbine maintenance, upgrades, and asset optimization, ensuring long-term performance and lifecycle management for critical infrastructure.
ThermaSource LLC, a specialist in geothermal drilling and well field services, supports front-end project development through subsurface engineering, resource validation, and drilling operations—key enablers of next-gen geothermal projects.
Terra-Gen Power LLC, with significant assets in California and Nevada, is investing in hybrid systems that integrate geothermal with solar, offering a more flexible and resilient approach to renewable energy deployment.
Chevron Corporation, historically associated with oil and gas, has maintained geothermal operations in Southeast Asia and is increasingly engaging with enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) and heat-to-power ventures as part of its energy transition roadmap.
Berkshire Hathaway Energy, through its subsidiary CalEnergy, operates significant geothermal assets in the Imperial Valley of California and is investing in grid-connected projects that integrate geothermal with battery storage.
U.S. Geothermal Inc., though now part of Ormat Technologies, played a pivotal role in developing binary cycle plants and continues to influence geothermal project pipelines through its acquired assets and technical legacy.
Together, these companies form a dynamic ecosystem that is accelerating the commercialization of geothermal power—from exploration and drilling to plant construction, hybrid integration, and long-term operations. Their combined efforts are helping to transition geothermal from a niche technology to a mainstream component of the global clean energy mix.
Looking Ahead: 2025–2034 Outlook
The geothermal power sector stands on the brink of a transformative decade. As enhanced drilling methods, data-driven reservoir management, and next-generation technologies such as Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) mature, the pace of global adoption is expected to accelerate significantly. By 2030, global geothermal capacity is projected to reach 24 GW—representing a 50% increase over 2023 levels. At the same time, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for EGS is expected to fall below $50/MWh, making it cost-competitive with solar and wind while offering round-the-clock baseload power.
Beyond electricity, geothermal is also poised to play a vital role in the decarbonization of heating and cooling. Ground-source heat pumps (GHPs) are anticipated to supply between 10–15% of global heating and cooling demand by the end of the decade, driven by rapid urbanization and the push for building electrification. By 2050, nearly half (46%) of geothermal energy output is expected to come from next-generation technologies that overcome traditional geographic limitations.
Geothermal’s versatility is becoming a strategic advantage. It is now being deployed not just for rural electrification but also to power smart cities, military installations, and industrial clusters that require high-temperature process heat. Its ability to offer secure, dispatchable energy without relying on weather conditions makes it a valuable asset for grid resilience and energy sovereignty.
As global temperatures rise and energy security takes center stage, geothermal energy is increasingly being recognized as more than just a renewable alternative—it is emerging as a cornerstone of the future energy ecosystem. With a growing pipeline of projects, increased investor confidence, and cross-sector innovation, geothermal is set to redefine its role from niche contributor to global energy linchpin.
