Quantum Supremacy: The Global Race for Large-Scale Programmable Quantum Computers

Rajesh Uppal August 14, 2024 Geopolitics, Quantum Comments Off on Quantum Supremacy: The Global Race for Large-Scale Programmable Quantum Computers 901 Views

Introduction

Since the development of lasers and semiconductors in the 1950s, quantum phenomena have been at the heart of technological advancements, leading to modern computer technology. However, these early quantum technologies primarily relied on classical bit-based descriptions. Today, we stand at the cusp of a revolution in quantum information science.

The world is on the brink of a technological revolution that has the potential to disrupt nearly every industry: the era of quantum computing. Quantum computers, leveraging the laws of quantum mechanics, offer unprecedented computational power, paving the way for groundbreaking scientific discoveries and revolutionary advancements in fields like cryptography, materials science, and artificial intelligence. In this article, we’ll delve into the global race for building large-scale programmable quantum computers that demonstrate quantum supremacy, pushing the boundaries of classical computing’s capabilities.

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The Quantum Information Revolution

Since the 1950s, quantum phenomena have played a pivotal role in technological progress, from the inception of lasers and semiconductors to the foundations of modern computer technology. While earlier quantum technologies often operated in terms of classical bits, today’s technological landscape has reached a pivotal juncture where quantum phenomena are not merely harnessed in the creation of devices but are poised to transform the way we store, process, and analyze a novel form of information. This revolution constitutes the crux of quantum information science, where quantum computing and quantum information processing are emerging as the next revolutionary technologies set to have a profound and far-reaching impact.

By capitalizing on the unique properties of quantum mechanics, such as superposition and entanglement, quantum information technologies, including quantum computers, cryptography, radars, and clocks, are propelling scientists to devise innovative algorithms capable of solving complex problems at an exponentially accelerated rate compared to the most advanced classical computers presently in operation. Quantum computers are on the verge of conquering tasks too formidable for even the mightiest conventional supercomputers, with applications spanning from code-breaking, cybersecurity, and medical diagnostics to big data analysis and logistics. The promise of quantum computing extends to expediting the discovery of new materials, chemicals, and drugs, potentially leading to a significant reduction in the exorbitant costs and protracted timelines associated with drug development.

Quantum information technologies encompass quantum computers, cryptography, radars, clocks, and other quantum systems. They harness the principles of quantum mechanics, operating at the subatomic scale, to process and analyze information in ways previously unimaginable. Quantum computers, for example, leverage the power of superposition and entanglement to solve complex problems exponentially faster than classical computers.

Quantum computers are on the brink of transforming industries:

Quantum Cryptography: Quantum encryption methods can revolutionize data security, making it nearly impossible for malicious actors to decrypt sensitive information.
Quantum Simulations: Quantum computers can simulate molecular structures, optimize chemical reactions, and model complex systems, offering applications in materials science and drug discovery.
Machine Learning and Big Data: Quantum algorithms can process large datasets and optimize machine learning models, opening doors to more accurate AI systems.
Logistics and Supply Chain Optimization: Quantum computing can enhance logistical and transportation systems, minimizing costs and improving efficiency.

Types of Quantum Computing Systems

Not all quantum computers are the same, and various approaches exist to create and use qubits for information processing.

These different approaches have unique strengths and limitations, shaping their suitability for various applications:

Quantum computing systems come in various forms, each offering distinct capabilities and posing unique challenges. These diverse approaches to harnessing quantum bits (qubits) for data storage, processing, and output have specific strengths and limitations, shaping their suitability for various applications and their journey from research laboratories to commercial viability.

Analogue Quantum Computers: This category encompasses adiabatic quantum computers, quantum annealers, and direct quantum simulators. These systems represent some of the most advanced quantum technologies available today. However, they are susceptible to higher levels of noise, which can compromise qubit quality. Consequently, their current utility is often limited to simpler and more specific use cases.
Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum Technology (NISQ): NISQ systems mark the next stage in the evolution of quantum computing. While unlikely to completely replace analogue quantum computers, NISQ systems exhibit improved noise tolerance, potentially requiring fewer qubits to become commercially viable. Although these systems are designed to combat noise-related issues, noise still imposes limitations on their performance.
Fully Error-Corrected Quantum Computers: These systems aim to replicate noiseless quantum processing through the use of specialized algorithms and additional qubits. However, achieving this error-corrected state presents a significant challenge, potentially extending the timeline for their commercial viability beyond that of analogue or NISQ systems. Once realized, fully error-corrected quantum computers hold the promise of tackling a wide range of complex problems and simulations, opening new frontiers in quantum computing’s practical applications.

Understanding Quantum Supremacy

The pursuit of “quantum supremacy” is central to this race, with the aim of achieving computational feats that classical supercomputers can’t match. The term, coined by physicist John Preskill of the California Institute of Technology, represents the point where a quantum computer, typically around 50 qubits, can perform tasks beyond the capabilities of classical counterparts. This includes simulating complex molecular structures in fields like chemistry and materials science, tackling encryption and machine learning challenges, and more. The demonstration of quantum supremacy could usher in a new era, potentially unlocking the ability to solve previously insurmountable problems, revolutionize AI, enhance weather forecasting, and provide intricate models of molecular interactions and financial systems. As the competition intensifies, the potential for groundbreaking advances in quantum computing continues to grow, shaping the future of this transformative technology.

Google claimed to have achieved quantum supremacy in 2019 when its 53-qubit quantum processor, Sycamore, completed a complex computation in just 200 seconds—a task that would take the most powerful classical supercomputers thousands of years to accomplish. While debates over the exact definition of quantum supremacy persist, there’s no doubt that large-scale programmable quantum computers will inevitably change the technological landscape.

The goal of the Google Quantum AI lab is to build a quantum computer that can be used to solve real-world problems. Our strategy is to explore near-term applications using systems that are forward compatible to a large-scale universal error-corrected quantum computer. In order for a quantum processor to be able to run algorithms beyond the scope of classical simulations, it requires not only a large number of qubits. Crucially, the processor must also have low error rates on readout and logical operations, such as single and two-qubit gates. The purpose of this gate-based superconducting system is to provide a testbed for research into system error rates and scalability of our qubit technology, as well as applications in quantum simulation, optimization, and machine learning.”

Demonstrating quantum supremacy is more than a technological milestone; it’s a testament to the capabilities of quantum computing. While Google’s Sycamore made headlines, the quantum field is advancing rapidly. Researchers are continually exploring new algorithms, error correction techniques, and hardware improvements.

The Global Quantum Computing Race

The global race to build scalable quantum computers has reached an unprecedented level of competition, with major players and emerging contenders pushing the boundaries of this transformative technology. Leading the charge are established tech giants like IBM, Google, Microsoft, Intel, and Amazon, along with innovative startups such as IonQ, Quantum Circuits, Rigetti Computing, and Honeywell. China, a newcomer to this quantum quest, has quickly become a significant player.

A multitude of companies and countries are competing to produce scalable quantum computers, marking a pivotal moment in the quantum information revolution. Leading contenders include IBM, Google, Microsoft, Intel, Amazon, IonQ, Quantum Circuits, Rigetti Computing, Honeywell, and China.

IBM made headlines in 2017 with the development of a 50-qubit quantum computer, marking a significant milestone in quantum technology. While this quantum system marked a major leap in computational capabilities, it remains inherently delicate and demanding to operate, a shared challenge faced by quantum systems developed by various entities. In both the 50-qubit and the 20-qubit configurations, the quantum state preservation extends for a remarkable 90 microseconds, setting a new industry record, albeit still considered a rather brief duration in the quantum realm. It’s worth noting that previous quantum systems exhibited limited functionality, restricted to tasks that could also be executed on conventional supercomputers. The 50-qubit quantum machine, however, empowers the execution of highly intricate computations that would prove exceptionally challenging to simulate using classical computing methods.

Google achieved quantum supremacy in 2019 with its 53-qubit quantum processor, Sycamore. This achievement, demonstrating the superior computational power of quantum over classical computers, has sparked a wave of innovation and competition. However, this claim generated debates among quantum experts, with some raising concerns about the possibility of a superior classical algorithm that could potentially surpass the quantum system’s performance. Furthermore, IBM researchers contended that their classical supercomputers had the theoretical capability to execute existing algorithms that could match the quantum computations in approximately 2.5 days. To conclusively establish quantum supremacy, it is imperative that the existence of a significantly faster classical method for the specific task at hand remains highly improbable.

China is a noteworthy contender, with a team that achieved quantum entanglement of 18 qubits, surpassing the previous record of 10. Their focus on photonic quantum computing and the potential for future programmability sets them apart.This remarkable feat was realized by employing beams of laser light to solve a computational problem previously deemed nearly impossible on conventional computers, completing the task within mere minutes, a task that would take a duration equivalent to half the age of the Earth using the best existing supercomputers.

Jian-Wei Pan, affiliated with the University of Science and Technology of China in Hefei, states, “We have shown that we can use photons, the fundamental unit of light, to demonstrate quantum computational power well beyond the classical counterpart.” This pioneering calculation, known as the boson-sampling problem, not only serves as a compelling demonstration of quantum advantage but also holds potential practical applications in fields such as graph theory, quantum chemistry, and machine learning. This achievement signifies a tour de force experiment and a pivotal milestone in the realm of quantum computing, as acknowledged by physicist Ian Walmsley at Imperial College London.

The Chinese team’s choice of a different problem, the boson sampling, represents a ‘#P-hard problem,’ surpassing the complexity of notoriously intricate NP-hard problems. With a quantum computer, this challenge is effectively addressed by directly simulating the quantum process, enabling the interference of bosons and the sampling of the resulting distribution. Employing photonic qubits, the researchers carried out this quantum computation at room temperature, sidestepping the brute-force classical calculation. By doing so, they obtained solutions to the boson-sampling problem in a mere 200 seconds, a task estimated to necessitate 2.5 billion years of computation on China’s TaihuLight supercomputer. This quantum advantage stands at approximately 10^14 times faster.

Although the Chinese team’s photonic circuit is currently non-programmable, the potential to develop an efficient programmable chip opens doors to solving critical computational challenges, including predicting protein interactions and molecular vibrations. Weedbrook highlights the promising trajectory of photonic quantum computing, suggesting it may even outpace alternative approaches in the field, concluding that quantum computers are inevitably poised to surpass classical counterparts in the not-so-distant future.

Rigetti Computing is working on a 128-qubit quantum computing system, aiming to challenge the existing leaders in quantum technology. Their focus on software and hardware integration positions them as a significant player in the race.

Microsoft is doubling down on its commitment to quantum computing, underscoring the transition from research to practical applications. Quantum startups like IonQ and Xanadu are also pushing the boundaries of what’s possible with quantum processors.

Global Competitors

United States: IBM and Google
In the U.S., tech giants IBM and Google have been at the forefront of the quantum race. IBM’s Quantum Hummingbird, a 65-qubit quantum computer, showcases the nation’s commitment to quantum research. Google’s quantum team, on the other hand, is focusing on improving its quantum hardware, taking quantum computing a step closer to practicality.
China: Alibaba and Baidu
China, a global leader in quantum research, is fiercely competing in the quantum race. Companies like Alibaba and Baidu are investing heavily in building large-scale quantum processors. Alibaba’s quantum processor, the TQD-WDC-Z, aims to achieve a quantum advantage in fields like optimization, cryptography, and machine learning.
Canada: D-Wave Systems
D-Wave Systems, a Canadian quantum computing company, is working on a different approach. They specialize in quantum annealers, which target specific optimization problems. While not considered universal quantum computers, they play a crucial role in solving complex real-world problems.
Europe: IBM Quantum Network
The European Union is investing significantly in the Quantum Flagship program, with a focus on collaborative research. IBM Quantum Network, which includes several European partners, is at the forefront of advancing quantum research in Europe.

Quantum Computing Technology

Quantum computing revolves around the fundamental unit called the qubit, which sets it apart from classical computing based on bits. While a classical bit can represent either a 0 or a 1, a qubit can embody not just 0 or 1 but also a unique intermediate state known as superposition, effectively spanning a multitude of values. Think of classical bits as being akin to black or white in terms of information, while a qubit in superposition could be compared to any color within a spectrum, even varying in brightness. Consequently, qubits possess the ability to store and process an immensely larger volume of information compared to classical bits, and this capacity scales exponentially when qubits are interconnected. For instance, the 53 qubits on Google’s Sycamore chip would necessitate about 72 petabytes (equivalent to 72 billion gigabytes) of classical computer memory, showcasing the quantum realm’s potential to outgrow traditional computational capabilities.

In the pursuit of creating general-purpose quantum computers, two predominant approaches have taken the lead. One method, embraced by Google, IBM, Rigetti, and Quantum Circuits, involves encoding quantum states using oscillating currents within superconducting loops. On the other hand, companies like Honeywell and IonQ have ventured into alternative quantum computing architectures, focusing on trapped ions. These trapped ion systems encode qubits within single ions held in place by electric and magnetic fields in vacuum traps, offering a distinct approach to quantum computation. Meanwhile, Silicon Quantum Computing in Australia has been advancing quantum computers founded on spin-based silicon qubits. The control of qubits in both superconducting and trapped ion quantum computers relies on microwave pulses, but variations in qubit properties necessitate distinct solutions, such as tuning qubits using magnetic fields in Google’s approach or adapting pulse frequencies to individual qubits in IBM’s method.

Each approach exhibits its unique advantages and trade-offs, with Google’s tunable qubits excelling in speed and precision while IBM’s fixed-frequency qubits prioritize stability and simplicity. Furthermore, photonic quantum computing, represented by companies like PsiQuantum in Palo Alto, is gaining ground and inching closer to commercialization, rekindling interest in this technology, despite initial assumptions that it might lag behind ion trap and superconducting counterparts. The evolving landscape of quantum computing continues to witness diverse approaches, each with its distinctive set of challenges and potentials.

Five qubit fully programmable computer based on ions

In a significant breakthrough, scientists have introduced the world’s first fully programmable and reprogrammable quantum computer, marking a significant milestone in quantum computing’s progression. Lead author of the study, Shantanu Debnath, a quantum physicist and optical engineer at the University of Maryland, College Park, emphasized the unique aspect of this development: “Until now, there hasn’t been any quantum-computing platform that had the capability to program new algorithms into their system. They’re usually each tailored to attack a particular algorithm.” Debnath, along with his colleagues, has unveiled a quantum computer composed of five qubits. Each qubit is represented by an ion, an electrically charged particle confined within a magnetic field. These qubits consist of five ytterbium ions, aligned and trapped within an electromagnetic field. The electronic state of each ion can be precisely controlled by applying laser pulses, enabling each ion to store a quantum bit of information.

Researchers harness lasers to manipulate these ions—five ytterbium atoms—endowing them with precise energy levels that influence their interactions with each other. Since these ions carry electrical charges, they exert forces on one another, causing them to vibrate at precisely controlled and manipulable frequencies. These quantum vibrations enable the ions to become entangled, allowing their quantum bits to interact. By governing these interactions, physicists can execute quantum logic operations, with quantum algorithms being a sequence of these logic operations. This innovative approach empowers researchers to program and reprogram the quantum computer with a versatile array of algorithms.

The team’s experimental tests of their device involved three algorithms that prior research had shown to be swiftly executable on quantum computers. Among these, the Deutsch-Jozsa and Bernstein-Vazirani algorithms achieved a success rate of 95% and 90%, respectively. The quantum Fourier transform algorithm, considered one of the most complex quantum calculations, attained a 70% success rate. The researchers envision that their system will serve as a testing ground to explore the challenges of multiqubit operations and find avenues for improvement. They have further asserted the scalability of their module, suggesting that multiple five-qubit modules can be interconnected to create a significantly more potent quantum computer.

Challenges

Numerous challenges remain to be addressed before the widespread adoption of large-scale programmable quantum computers becomes feasible.

Firstly, the inherent noisiness of quantum computers presents a significant hurdle. Noise can introduce errors into the computations executed by these machines, thereby compromising the integrity and accuracy of results.

Secondly, the requirement to maintain extremely low temperatures poses another formidable challenge. Quantum states, being exceedingly delicate, are susceptible to disruption from even slight increases in temperature. Consequently, stringent cooling measures are imperative to safeguard the stability and functionality of quantum computers.

Recent Breakthroughs

Entanglement is a phenomenon that occurs when two or more quantum particles are linked together in such a way that they share the same fate. This means that if you measure the state of one particle, you will instantly know the state of the other particle, even if they are separated by a large distance.

Entanglement is essential for building quantum computers. Quantum computers use qubits to represent information, and qubits must be entangled in order to perform complex calculations.

The team at the University of Science and Technology of China used a superconducting circuit to entangle the qubits. Superconducting circuits are made from materials that lose their electrical resistance at very low temperatures. This makes them ideal for building quantum computers because they are very stable and can be used to create controlled quantum states.

The team’s achievement is a significant step forward in the development of quantum computers. It demonstrates that it is possible to entangle a large number of qubits, which is essential for building powerful quantum computers.

In 2023, a team of researchers at the University of Chicago developed a new method for error correction that could make it possible to build quantum computers with millions of qubits.

Error correction is one of the biggest challenges in building quantum computers. Quantum computers are very fragile and errors can easily occur during calculations. Error correction techniques are needed to reduce the number of errors and ensure that the quantum computer can perform calculations accurately.

The new error correction method developed by the team at the University of Chicago is called topological quantum error correction. Topological quantum error correction is a new type of error correction that is more efficient and robust than traditional error correction methods.

The team at the University of Chicago demonstrated their new error correction method using a small quantum computer with just five qubits. However, they believe that the method could be scaled up to build quantum computers with millions of qubits.

The development of new error correction methods is essential for building powerful quantum computers. The new method developed by the team at the University of Chicago is a significant breakthrough that could make it possible to build quantum computers that are capable of solving some of the world’s most challenging problems.

These two breakthroughs are just two examples of the rapid progress that is being made in the development of quantum computers. Quantum computers are still in their early stages of development, but they have the potential to revolutionize many fields, including medicine, materials science, artificial intelligence, and finance.

Atom Computing Announces Record-Breaking 1,225-Qubit Quantum Computer

On October 24, 2023, Atom Computing, a quantum startup based in Boulder, Colorado, announced a groundbreaking achievement: they have developed a quantum computing platform with a remarkable 1,180 qubits, exceeding the 1,000-qubit threshold for a universal gate-based system. This milestone represents a significant step toward the development of fault-tolerant quantum computers capable of tackling large-scale problems. Atom Computing’s CEO, Rob Hays, emphasized their rapid scaling capability and collaboration with partners to explore practical applications for these large-scale systems.

Paul Smith-Goodson, a vice president and principal analyst at Moor Insights & Strategy, noted that Atom Computing, despite being a relatively young company, is emerging as a strong contender in the race to create a fault-tolerant quantum system. Their strategic focus on scaling atomic array technology has led to remarkable progress.

Building fault-tolerant quantum computers necessitates achieving low error rates, high fidelity, and other essential capabilities such as long coherence times, mid-circuit measurement, error correction, and logical qubits. Atom Computing has demonstrated impressive progress in these areas, including achieving a record 40-second coherence time for qubits.

Atom Computing’s pursuit of these capabilities with their next-generation system offers new opportunities for collaboration with partners. Guenter Klas, leader of the Quantum Research Cluster at Vodafone, highlighted the importance of scalable hardware, high fidelity, and long coherence times in quantum computing’s economic potential.

Tommaso Demarie, CEO of Entropica Labs, a strategic partner of Atom Computing, expressed enthusiasm for this achievement, stating that it allows for deeper exploration of error correction strategies and the design of more reliable and scalable quantum computing systems.

Atom Computing is actively working with enterprise, academic, and government users to develop applications and reserve time on these systems, which are expected to become available in 2024.

The field of quantum computing is rapidly advancing, and new records are being set all the time. It is expected that quantum computers will become increasingly powerful and capable in the coming years.

China has achieved a significant milestone in quantum computing with the launch of its third-generation superconducting quantum computer, “Origin Wukong.”

Developed by Origin Quantum Computing Technology (Hefei) Co., the computer features a 72-qubit superconducting quantum chip, making it the most advanced programmable superconducting quantum computer in the country. This achievement was announced jointly by the Anhui Quantum Computing Engineering Research Center and the Anhui Provincial Key Laboratory of Quantum Computing Chips.

The “Wukong chip” powers the computer, boasting a total of 198 qubits, including 72 working qubits and 126 coupler qubits. This quantum computer marks China’s first automated batch testing of quantum chips, leading to a significant increase in efficiency. Origin Quantum, established in 2017, has previously delivered first- and second-generation superconducting quantum computers to the Chinese market and leads in quantum computing patents in China and globally.

Quantum computing is regarded as a promising alternative to conventional silicon chip-based computing systems. The development of quantum technology aligns with China’s strategic goals of fostering industrial innovation and nurturing emerging industries, as highlighted in the Central Economic Work Conference held in December 2023. The conference emphasized the importance of disruptive and cutting-edge technologies like quantum computing in driving future industrial growth and innovation.

Russian Scientists Expect A 50-Qubit Quantum Computer By End Of 2024

Russia has successfully developed a 20-qubit quantum computer, with plans to scale up to 50 to 100 qubits. Ruslan Yunusov, an advisor to Rosatom’s CEO, shared this advancement with TASS, the Russian News Agency.

This achievement surpasses their previous 16-qubit ion-based quantum computer demonstrated to President Vladimir Putin in 2023. The 16-qubit computer, showcased by the Lebedev Physical Institute and the Russian Quantum Center, highlighted Russia’s progress in the field.

Yunusov also mentioned the completion of a 25-qubit machine built on a “nuclear platform,” indicating a broader quantum computing roadmap. The goal is to develop a 50-qubit computer by the end of the year, showcasing Russia’s rapid advancements in quantum computing, which holds potential for solving complex problems beyond the reach of current supercomputers.

The Russian government announced a $790 million investment in quantum computing research over five years in 2021, aiming to enhance the country’s technological capabilities and global economic standing. Ilya Semerikov of the LPI Laboratory of Optics of Complex Quantum Systems emphasized the practical applications of their quantum computer in modeling molecules, marking significant progress in Russia’s quantum technology efforts and contributing to the global race in quantum computing.

Conclusion

The global race for large-scale programmable quantum computers is shaping the future of technology and scientific exploration. As different companies and countries compete to harness the power of quantum supremacy, we’re on the verge of unlocking a new era of computing.

The global race for large-scale programmable quantum computers is not just about nations and companies competing but also about pushing the boundaries of human knowledge. Quantum computing has the potential to tackle some of the world’s most complex problems, from simulating new materials for renewable energy to revolutionizing cryptography. Quantum computing promises to solve complex problems, enhance data security, and accelerate scientific discoveries, revolutionizing industries and changing the way we interact with technology.

As large-scale quantum computers become more accessible, we can expect an era of unprecedented innovation. While quantum supremacy is a significant milestone, it’s only the beginning of a journey that will reshape the world of computing and science. We’re on the verge of a quantum revolution, and the possibilities are boundless.