UK MOD’s vision of Future Operating Environment in 2035, future force and Capability development

Britain’s Ministry of Defense has released a new forecast of future world in 2035, in report, titled “Future Operating Environment 2035”. It describes the key institutional, cultural and physical characteristics, actors and their motivations, that are likely to shape the future operating environment. It identifies key implications to assess future military utility and opportunities for UK’s Defence in 2035 that can contribute to future force development process.

“The centre of gravity of global economic power is continuing to shift, away from North America and Europe, towards Asia, resulting in a change in the balance of power and an increasingly multipolar world.” “In 2035, the key global economic powers will be the US, China and the EU – with India rising rapidly – but only the US and China are likely to have the capability to dictate global events and potentially challenge world order.”

“There are likely to be significant challenges resulting from population growth, migration, greater demand for energy, climate change, continuing globalization, rapid urbanization and the exponential rate of change in some readily-available technologies.” By 2035, disruptive events will have increasingly global consequences – requiring action from the international community.

In developing states, rapid population increases and urbanisation may lead to instability, Failed or failing cities could become the source of major security issues and Poor governance and inadequate institutions could allow violent and criminal non-state actors to flourish.

“As a result of climate change, sea levels will rise and extreme climatic events are likely to increase in intensity, frequency and duration out to 2035, resulting in loss of life, physical destruction, disease and famine. Demand for a range of natural resources is likely to increase over the next 20 years. There may also be a scarcity of fossil fuels, rare earth elements and new ‘high tech’ materials.”

Technology will be a key driver of change due to the rate of advance and growing accessibility in some fields. Actors may employ existing dual use or commercial technologies in highly innovative ways, which may be disruptive.

A combination of these factors may lead to challenges at home, as well as fragility and instability within the wider international system. Faster and more agile military responses may be called for, posing a challenge for policy- and decision-makers