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Climate change is no longer a distant concern relegated to environmentalists and scientists. It has emerged as a pressing national security threat, prompting the United States Department of Defense (DOD) to develop comprehensive adaptation and climate intervention strategies. The DOD’s recognition of climate change as a critical security issue underscores the urgency of addressing its multifaceted impacts on military operations, infrastructure, and global stability.
Climate Change and National Security
The connection between climate change and national security is multifaceted and complex. Rising global temperatures, melting ice caps, and more frequent and severe natural disasters pose direct threats to military installations and operations. Floods, hurricanes, and wildfires can disrupt training exercises, damage infrastructure, and compromise readiness. Additionally, climate change exacerbates geopolitical tensions, leading to conflicts over scarce resources, mass migrations, and destabilization in vulnerable regions.
Climate Change as a Driver of Conflict and Violence
Climate change exacerbates drivers of instability and conflict, such as resource scarcity, poverty, inequality, population movements, and land disputes. The second-order effects of social tensions, disrupted livelihoods, and political unrest may escalate into severe security challenges. The Pentagon’s 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review noted that climate change acts as a threat multiplier, exacerbating stressors like poverty, environmental degradation, and political instability, conditions that can foster terrorist activities and violence.
Climate change is not only one of the biggest existential threats facing the world but also a major driver of current and future global conflicts. The UN’s IPCC, in a landmark report, warned that growing competition for resources in a world under climate change could lead to conflict. Climate change is an important catalyst for war, terrorism, and major migration patterns, as Dutch armed forces chief Tom Middendorp has noted.
Craig Anderson, an Iowa State University Distinguished Professor of Psychology, and Andreas Miles-Novelo, an ISU graduate student and lead author, identified three ways climate change will increase the likelihood of violence. Their research, published in the journal Current Climate Change Reports, outlines that higher temperatures increase irritability and hostility, leading to violence. The other two routes are indirect and stem from the effects of climate change on natural disasters, failing crops, and economic instability. Natural disasters do not directly increase violence, but the economic disruption, displacement of families, and strain on natural resources that result are problematic.
One indirect way natural disasters increase violence is through the development of babies, children, and adolescents into violence-prone adults due to poor living conditions, disrupted families, and inadequate prenatal and child nutrition. These risk factors will become more prevalent as a result of climate change-induced disasters such as hurricanes, droughts, floods, water shortages, and changing agricultural practices.
Another indirect effect is “eco-migration,” where large groups of people are forced to migrate due to extensive and long-term natural disasters. This creates intergroup conflicts over resources, leading to political violence, civil wars, or wars between nations. Anderson notes that we are already seeing the migration of large groups in response to physical, economic, or political instability resulting from ecological disasters. The conflict in Syria is one example where differences between migrants and the local population can escalate into tension and violence. As these conflicts increase, combined with the availability of weapons of mass destruction, the results could be devastating.
Direct Impacts on Military Infrastructure
Military bases, particularly those located along coastlines, are increasingly vulnerable to sea-level rise and extreme weather events. The DOD has identified more than 1,700 military installations at risk from climate-related threats. For instance, Naval Station Norfolk, the world’s largest naval base, faces recurrent flooding and rising sea levels, necessitating significant infrastructure investments to maintain operational capabilities.
Operational Challenges
Jon Powers, a retired Army captain and CleanCapital president, emphasized that climate disasters disrupt not just physical infrastructure but also operational readiness. “The operations coordinated from that facility are halted,” he explained, stressing the need to design facilities for long-term resilience.
Service members also face new risks, with heat-related illnesses among troops increasing by 60 percent over the past decade. The Army War College report warns of potential foreign interventions for humanitarian aid and disaster relief triggered by climate impacts, highlighting the need for military readiness in the face of climate-induced stressors like water scarcity, food production decline, and population displacement.
Climate change also affects military operations by altering the strategic landscape. The Arctic region, for example, is experiencing unprecedented ice melt, opening new sea routes and potential conflict zones. The DOD must adapt its strategies to navigate these emerging challenges and protect national interests in the face of shifting geopolitical dynamics.
The White House’s National Security Strategy of February 2015 underscores that “climate change is an urgent and growing threat to our national security, contributing to increased natural disasters, refugee flows, and conflicts over basic resources like food and water.” The impacts are tangible, stretching from the Arctic to the Midwest. Increased sea levels and storm surges jeopardize coastal regions, infrastructure, and property, escalating global economic costs associated with infrastructure preparation and restoration.
U.S. Military’s Readiness: A Critical Review
Recent climate-related disasters have exposed vulnerabilities in U.S. military readiness. Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska, home to the U.S. Strategic Command, was heavily damaged by historic flooding in March, incurring over $1 billion in rebuilding costs. In 2018, Hurricane Michael devastated Tyndall Air Force Base, destroying 17 F-22 stealth fighters and causing $5 billion in damage. Additionally, heat-related illnesses among service members have surged, raising concerns over their safety and operational readiness.
The Department of Defense, under scrutiny for its inadequate response to climate risks, faces criticism from military experts and Congress. The Union of Concerned Scientists predicts that by mid-century, U.S. military bases could see a significant increase in heat-related days, compromising personnel safety and operational capacity. Aircraft performance is also affected by rising temperatures and humidity, raising questions about the future viability of the current fleet.
The report, which focuses on the Army, pointedly says the military must consider changes in doctrine, organization, equipment, and training to meet the mounting threats of climate change. “It would be shortsighted for any organization to not consider how potential future changes might impact their operations,” said Col. Parker L. Frawley, an assistant professor in the Department of National Security and Strategy at the United States Army War College.
DOD’s Adaptation and Climate Intervention Strategies
In response to these growing threats, the DOD has developed a multi-pronged approach to mitigate the impacts of climate change on national security. This strategy encompasses infrastructure resilience, operational adaptation, and climate intervention measures. A Pentagon directive mandates that “All DoD operations worldwide must adapt to address the impacts of climate change to maintain effective and efficient U.S. military operations.” The report on the National Security Implications of Climate-Related Risks and a Changing Climate to Congress identifies the most severe climate-related security risks for each combatant command, detailing how these risks are integrated into planning processes. This directive also outlines the resources required for effective responses and establishes timelines for these needs.
The US DOD Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap
The 2014 Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap sets three goals for the Department of Defense:
- Identify and Assess Climate Effects: Combatant Commands have pinpointed areas of risk, such as persistent conditions like flooding and drought, increased extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and diminishing Arctic ice cover, affecting navigation, port facilities, and search and rescue operations.
- Integrate Climate Considerations: The DOD aims to embed climate change considerations across programs, operations, and planning processes, developing and implementing strategies to address identified risks.
- Collaborate on Climate Challenges: Promoting collaboration with federal, state, local, tribal, and international stakeholders is crucial. This collaboration spans operations, adaptation strategies, and research to enhance resilience.
Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies
Adaptation – adapting to life in a changing climate – involves adjusting to actual or expected future climate. The goal is to reduce our vulnerability to the harmful effects of climate change (like sea-level encroachment, more intense extreme weather events or food insecurity). It also encompasses making the most of any potential beneficial opportunities associated with climate change (for example, longer growing seasons or increased yields in some regions). This includes things like building seawalls to protect bases, developing heat-resistant equipment, and revising deployment strategies for extreme weather events.
Mitigation – reducing climate change – involves reducing the flow of heat-trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, either by reducing sources of these gases (for example, the burning of fossil fuels for electricity, heat or transport) or enhancing the “sinks” that accumulate and store these gases (such as the oceans, forests and soil).
Infrastructure Resilience
Enhancing the resilience of military infrastructure is a top priority for the DOD. This involves fortifying existing facilities, constructing new buildings to withstand extreme weather, and relocating vulnerable installations when necessary. The DOD is investing in advanced engineering solutions and sustainable building practices to ensure that military bases can endure the challenges posed by climate change.
Operational Adaptation
The DOD is also adapting its operational strategies to address the evolving climate landscape. This includes revising training protocols to account for extreme weather conditions, developing contingency plans for natural disasters, and incorporating climate risk assessments into military planning. By integrating climate considerations into its strategic framework, the DOD aims to maintain readiness and effectiveness in an increasingly unpredictable world.
Globally, the military should prepare for new foreign interventions, including humanitarian supply missions and disaster relief, triggered by climate-related impacts, the Army War College report warned. It examined the ripple effects of climate change-induced stressors, such as availability of water, declining food production, populations displaced by sea level rise and regions made uninhabitable because of excessive heat. These stressors can tax already weak nations with unstable governments and disrupt civil society, potentially lighting the fuse on conflict, like what happened in the Syrian civil war.
Climate Intervention Measures
In addition to adaptation efforts, the DOD is exploring climate intervention measures to mitigate the root causes of climate change. This includes investing in renewable energy sources, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and developing technologies for carbon capture and sequestration. By leading by example, the DOD hopes to inspire broader efforts across the government and private sectors to combat climate change.
Technological Innovations for a Sustainable Future
PwC UK has identified ten breakthrough technologies with substantial potential to drive the world toward a zero net emissions economy. These technologies include advanced materials, cloud technology, autonomous vehicles, synthetic biology, virtual and augmented reality, artificial intelligence, robotics, blockchain, 3D printing, and the Internet of Things (IoT).
PwC UK’s study highlights five game-changing technology solutions for sustainability:
- Next-Generation Distributed Grid: Combining blockchain, AI, IoT, cloud, big data, and advanced materials.
- Electrification of Transport: Utilizing cloud, big data, AI, IoT, and advanced materials.
- Smart, Automated Road Transport: Integrating autonomous vehicles, cloud, IoT, and big data.
- Smart Land-Use Management: Combining autonomous vehicles, IoT, AI, cloud, and big data.
- Technology-Enabled Urban Planning: Integrating IoT, AI, cloud, big data, advanced materials, 3D printing, and autonomous vehicles.
The “Innovation for the Earth” study highlights how these technologies could advance clean power, smart transport, sustainable production and consumption, sustainable land use, and smart cities and homes.
Examples include virtual power plants connected via the cloud and IoT, optimizing energy sources with big data and machine learning. The study urges policymakers to consider the unintended consequences of rapid technological advances on emissions and digital waste.
Global Implications
The DOD’s proactive stance on climate change has far-reaching global implications. As one of the largest and most influential military organizations in the world, the DOD’s actions set a precedent for other nations to follow. By prioritizing climate resilience and sustainability, the DOD contributes to global stability and security, fostering international cooperation in the fight against climate change.
Building Alliances
Climate change is a global challenge that requires collaborative solutions. Under the leadership of ISRO and CNES, space agencies from over 60 countries have joined forces to utilize satellites for monitoring greenhouse gas emissions. Satellite data is pivotal for verifying nations’ commitments under the Paris Agreement, facilitating the transition to coordinated ‘big space data’ for effective climate action.
The DOD is working closely with international partners to share knowledge, resources, and best practices for climate adaptation and mitigation. Strengthening alliances and fostering cooperation enhances global security and reinforces the collective effort to address climate change.
Conclusion
The recognition of climate change as a national security threat by the United States Department of Defense marks a pivotal shift in the global approach to this pressing issue. By implementing comprehensive adaptation and climate intervention strategies, the DOD is taking proactive steps to safeguard military infrastructure, maintain operational readiness, and contribute to global stability. The DOD’s leadership in addressing climate change sets a powerful example for other nations, underscoring the urgency of collective action to mitigate the impacts of this existential threat. As climate change continues to reshape our world, the DOD’s commitment to resilience and sustainability serves as a beacon of hope in the fight for a secure and sustainable future.
References and Resources also include:
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S209580991630145X
