Emerging Risks — Long-Term Horizon

Long-range intelligence signals and emerging risks with strategic consequences over the next decade and beyond.

  • Power from Motion: The Revolution in Piezoelectric Materials for Smart Sensors, Actuators, Sonar Systems, and Energy Harvesting (2026 Update)

    Introduction: The Invisible Technology Powering the Intelligent Age The twenty-first century is increasingly defined by machines that can sense, adapt, communicate, and make decisions in real time. From autonomous vehicles and industrial robots to underwater surveillance networks and hypersonic weapons, modern systems rely on a continuous flow of information about the physical world. At the…

  • Securing the Frontiers: Intelligent Border Management in the Age of AI, Geopolitical Competition, and Transnational Threats (2026 Update)

    Introduction: Border Management Becomes a Strategic Security Domain Borders have become one of the most contested security environments of the twenty-first century. No longer merely geographic boundaries, they now serve as critical interfaces between national security, economic prosperity, public health, migration management, and geopolitical competition. Governments must simultaneously facilitate trillions of dollars in legitimate trade…

  • Catastrophic Wildfire Threat: How 2025–2026 Breakthroughs Are Rewriting the Wildfire Playbook

    Introduction: The Fire Age Has Arrived Wildfires are no longer seasonal environmental disasters confined to remote forests. They are rapidly evolving into a persistent global security challenge affecting critical infrastructure, public health, economic stability, military readiness, and climate resilience. From the megafires that devastated Canada and California in 2025 to increasingly severe fire seasons across…

  • Strategic Silence and Counterterrorism Management: Outthinking Adaptive Adversaries in the AI Era (2026 Update)

    Introduction: Why Counterterrorism Management Must Rethink Transparency For decades, governments have assumed that publicizing new security measures strengthens deterrence, reassures citizens, and demonstrates competence. Airports announce new scanners, military installations publicize upgraded perimeter defenses, ports reveal advanced screening technologies, and major events showcase extensive security preparations. Yet the strategic environment of 2026 is increasingly challenging…

  • Building Greener, Stronger, and More Resilient: Mass Timber’s Strategic Role in Military Infrastructure (2026 Update)

    Introduction: Why Mass Timber Has Become a Strategic Defense Technology The global military construction sector is undergoing its most significant transformation since the widespread adoption of reinforced concrete after World War II. Driven by escalating geopolitical competition, climate resilience requirements, rising construction costs, supply-chain vulnerabilities, and military readiness demands, defense organizations are increasingly exploring alternative…

  • Growing the Final Frontier: How DARPA Plans to Bio-Print 500-Meter Structures in Space

    Introduction: From Manufacturing in Space to Growing in Space For decades, space infrastructure has been constrained by one unforgiving reality: everything must be launched from Earth. Every kilogram of structural material, every solar array, every antenna boom, and every habitat module must survive launch stresses, fit inside a rocket fairing, and justify its immense transportation…

  • Nuclear Materials Trafficking: Separating Strategic Reality from Public Fear

    Introduction: Nuclear Trafficking Between Panic and Reality The global debate over nuclear materials trafficking has intensified sharply between 2024 and 2026 amid rising geopolitical tensions, expanding civilian nuclear programs, renewed great-power competition, and fears of state collapse or proxy proliferation. Headlines surrounding the 2026 Takeshi Ebisawa case, Iran’s enrichment escalation, North Korea’s expanding fissile-material production,…

  • Building the Future: How 3D Printing and Advanced Construction Are Revolutionizing Military Infrastructure (2026 Update)

    Introduction: Infrastructure as a Strategic Weapon Military infrastructure is undergoing its most significant transformation since the mechanization of combat engineering during the Second World War. Across the United States, China, Europe, Russia, and the Indo-Pacific, defense planners are rethinking how bases, fortifications, airfields, logistics hubs, and expeditionary facilities are designed and constructed in an era…

  • Beyond Hallucinations: How Russia and Other Actors Are Weaponizing LLMs

    Introduction: The Battle for the AI Cognitive Layer The global race to dominate artificial intelligence has entered a far more dangerous phase. The first wave of concern centered on what Large Language Models (LLMs) could generate—fake images, malware, automated propaganda, and synthetic content. By 2026, however, the battlefield has shifted from AI outputs to the…