The Quantum technologies field comprises four domains: Quantum Communication, where individual or entangled photons are used to transmit data in a provably secure way; Quantum Simulation, where well-controlled quantum systems are used to reproduce the behavior of other, less accessible quantum systems; Quantum Computation, which employs quantum effects to dramatically speed up certain calculations, such as number factoring; and Quantum Sensing & Metrology, where the high sensitivity of coherent quantum systems to external perturbations is exploited to enhance the performance of measurements of physical quantities.
Quantum computing and quantum information processing are next revolutionary technology expected to have immense impact. Quantum computers will be able to perform tasks too hard for even the most powerful conventional supercomputer and have a host of specific applications, from code-breaking and cyber security to medical diagnostics, big data analysis and logistics.
Global Quantum computing market is projected to grow more than $14 billion in 2025. Quantum cryptography will be worth $25 billion, and Quantum Sensors Market is expected to reach more than USD 700 million.
The reason that so much money is being invested in quantum technology is because there is a firm belief that quantum science, such as advanced material science (e.g. quantum computing used in molecular chemistry), will lead to commercially beneficial quantum technologies, such as dramatically improved materials for manufacture of consumer, enterprise, industrial, and governmental goods. Quantum computers could accelerate the discovery of new materials, chemicals and drugs. They could dramatically reduce the current high costs and long lead times involved in developing new drugs.
Quantum is dual use technology, it present both a risk as well as opportunity, has both commercial as well as military applications. Quantum technologies will revolutionize warfare by introducing new capabilities such as quantum computers, quantum radar, and quantum key distribution, increase effectiveness of the current technologies such as quantum optimization, quantum machine learning, quantum cryptoanalysis, sensing capabilities and accuracy of position, navigation, and timing services.
The economic and military advantages are driving intense Quantum race among countries, led by China, United States, Europe, Canada, and Australia.
In race to develop first large-scale programmable quantum computer, Google took lead in 2019 when it launched Sycamore, a 53 physical superconducting qubits Quantum computer. Further it claimed quantum supremacy by carrying out a calculation in 200 seconds compared to estimated 10,000 years what the world’s most powerful supercomputer Summit, would take.
Recently IBM has unveiled Eagle, a 127-qubit quantum processor. Expectations are to reach 1 million physical qubits in 10 years. Quantum computing is a critical dual use technology with myriad potential civilian and military applications, ranging from drug discovery to encryption, hence the quantum revolution has many security implications. The advances in quantum computing would lead to any and all previously encrypted sensitive communications (from government and military secrets to bank transactions) vulnerable to be compromised.
In 2021, China claimed to test two different quantum computers on more challenging tasks than Sycamore faced and showed faster results. Zuchongzi, a 56 superconducting qubits computer completed a task of sampling, a given spread of probabilities. In another study, the scientists tested Jiuzhang 2.0, a photonic quantum computer, on Gaussian boson sampling, task where the machine analyzes random patches of data. They estimated Jiuzhang 2.0 could solve the problem roughly 10 raised to 24 times faster than classical supercomputers. They note their work points to “an unambiguous quantum computational advantage.”
In addition another important Quantum area is Quantum key Distribution(QKD) which leads to unhackable communications. Governments are interested in quantum technology because of the many military/defense and overall security implications. For example, quantum computing can render all existing encryption useless and exposed to hacking and infiltration. This means that all financial transactions and state secrets are potentially at risk with quantum computing.
Coming to Global Quantum communications race, China has taken early lead and US, Europe, Japan and others are trying to catch up. China has created a 2000 Km fiber based Quantum network linking four fiber-based quantum metropolitan area networks (QMANs) and a quantum satellite link spanning 2600 km between two observatories.
The quantum fiber network comprises more than 700 fibre links supported by 32 “trusted relay nodes” and serves about 150 users. China was also first country to launch a quantum communication satellite in 2016 known as Micius. They established a secure satellite link between two ground stations, separated by over 1,100km. using entangled particles for simultaneous transmission of keys. They have also conducted the world’s first quantum-secured video call.
Pan and his team are aiming to launch a constellation of satellites and a nationwide fiber-optic network for creation of unbreakable quantum communication networks. China will transition its military telecommunications to the quantum networks, making it hack proof.
Third importanat area is Quantum sensors which are leading to many military and security sensors such as submarine detection. Quantum gravity sensors, quantum navigators, and quantum imaging systems are available and transitioning to consumer products.
Quantum technologies are rapidly developing globally with a huge disruptive potential. The next generation transformative technologies that will receive a push under this mission include quantum computers and computing, quantum communication, quantum key distribution, encryption, crypt analysis, quantum devices, quantum sensing, quantum materials, quantum clock and so on. The areas of focus for the Mission will be in fundamental science, translation, technology development, human and infrastructural resource generation, innovation and start-ups to address issues concerning national priorities.
The quantum technology market will be a substantial enabler of dramatically improved sensing and instrumentation. For example, gravity sensors may be made significantly more precise through quantum sensing. Quantum electromagnetic sensing provides the ability to detect minute differences in the electromagnetic field.
Canada is considered one of the world’s leading nations in quantum research. It has invested more than $1b in quantum research over the past decade. Canada has a growing private sector impact, outstanding research expertise, and extensive government commitments to innovation. This places the country in a very strong position to drive quantum technology development.
The UK began its first five-year phase in 2015, and after it’s success, announced the second five-year phase at the end of 2019. The first phase consisted of over £385m investment across several UK government agencies. During this phase, the UK created a vision for its National strategy for quantum technologies. Four hubs involving around 30 universities including associated companies and government organisations were established. The four research ‘Hubs’ consisted of research programmes, comprising academics with industry and government partners.
In 2018, the German Federal Government announced a Framework Programme to bring quantum technologies to market. They also allocated 650m € funding to its quantum technologies Programme
It is estimated that the Chinese government has invested around $10b in quantum technologies, however this figure has not been officially confirmed. By 2030, China aims to have expanded its national quantum communications infrastructure, developed a general quantum computer prototype, and constructed a practical quantum simulator.
Russian scientists have been developing cornerstones of quantum technologies for many decades. Quantum research in Russia is supported by both governmental and industrial entities. The Russian government announced in 2019 that it will invest around 50b roubles ($663m) over the next 5 years into basic and applied quantum research carried out at leading Russian laboratories
Global quantum technology market
Overall global quantum technology market will reach $42.4 billion by 2027. Quantum computing will lead the market at $16.1 billion by 2027 and 39.4% CAGR.
The quantum sensing market will reach $989 million globally by 2027, nearly twice the size of the quantum imaging market The quantum magnetometer market will reach $925 million globally by 2027, led by superconducting quantum interference devices.
The global quantum doOverall global quantum technology market will reach $31.57 billion by 2026. Quantum computing will lead the market at $14.25 billion by 2026 and 38.4% CAGRts market will reach $12.71 billion by 2026, growing a 25.1% CAGR and led by displays.
According to the market research report published by P&S Intelligence, the global quantum computing market share was valued at $507.1 million in 2019 and is expected to post $64,988.3 million by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 56.0% during the forecast period (2020–2030). The need for robust computing that has the potential to overcome the difficulties involved in discovering drugs to target specific cancers and evaluating portfolio risk prominently contributes to the market growth. The machine learning (ML) category under application segment is expected to record the fastest growth during the forecast period. This can be primarily owing to the large potential of ML technologies that can be incorporated with the quantum computing systems for enhancing their use case. The QCaaS market is expected to grow from USD 4 million by 2019 to USD 13 million by 2024 at a CAGR of 26.8%.
The quantum annealing category held the largest share under the technology segment in 2019. This is attributed to successful overcoming of physical challenges to develop this technology and further incorporated in bigger systems. The BFSI category held the largest share in the quantum computing market in 2019. This is owing to the fact that the industry is growing positively across the globe, and large banks are focusing on investing in this potential technology that can enable them to streamline their business processes, along with unbeatable levels of security.
Among the end-user industries considered, space and defense is the largest contributor to the overall quantum computing market, and it is expected to account for a maximum share of the market in 2019. The need for secure communications and data transfer, with the demand in faster data operations, is expected to boost the demand for quantum computing consulting solutions in this industry. The market for the automotive industry is expected to grow at the highest CAGR from 2019 to 2024.
The quantum sensors market is expected to register a CAGR of almost 4% during 2020-2024, as per the latest research report by Technavio.Quantum Sensors Market is segmented into Atomic Clocks, PAR Quantum Sensors, Gravity Sensors, Magnetic Sensors and others. The use of NV color centers for manufacturing quantum sensors has been an instrumental factor in influencing the growth of quantum sensors market. Other market drivers include a growing number of research activities in the market and the introduction of new technologies in the market. Technavio offers custom research analysis on the crucial pointers to highlight the impact of COVID-19 on the market across the supply chain.
Commercial applications for the quantum imaging market are potentially wide-ranging including exploration, monitoring, and safety. For example, gas image processing may detect minute changes that could lead to early detection of tank failure or the presence of toxic chemicals. In concert with quantum sensing, quantum imaging may also help with various public safety-related applications such as search and rescue.
Market research firm Technavio has projected the global quantum cryptography solutions market 2018-2022 to grow at an impressive CAGR of close to 39%. This can be attributed to the growing interest in quantum technologies, which has led governments across the world to invest billions of dollars in research to promote quantum computing, quantum sensing for industries, and quantum communications.
Quantum cryptography relies on the quantum state of photons to exchange key data, thereby assuring data privacy. The increasing focus on IT security and data privacy will increase the adoption of quantum computing by organizations. Some of the key trends impacting the quantum cryptography solutions market are as follows: Emergence of QKD as a service , Extending the range of secure communication using twin field QKD, and Increasing popularity of free-space QKD
Much more than only computing, the quantum technology market provides a foundation for improving all digital communications, applications, content, and commerce. In the realm of communications, quantum technology will influence everything from encryption to the way that signals are passed from point A to point B. While currently in the R&D phase, networked quantum information and communications technology (ICT) is anticipated to become a commercial reality that will represent nothing less than a revolution for virtually every aspect of ICT.
However, there will be a need to integrate the ICT supply chain with quantum technologies in a manner that does not attempt to replace every aspect of classical computing but instead leverages a hybrid computational framework. Traditional High-Performance Computing (HPC) will continue to be used for many existing problems for the foreseeable future, while quantum technologies will be used for encrypting communications, signaling, and will be the underlying basis in the future for all commerce transactions. This does not mean that quantum encryption will replace Blockchain, but rather provide improved encryption for blockchain technology.
In terms of commercializing quantum technologies, there will be a need to evolve quantum science to an ROI-focused quantum technology market. We see this happening in many ways including industrial-academic collaboration and public-private partnerships, many of which will require governmental funding, stimulated by a desire to substantially improve both digital and physical infrastructure.
One of the key drivers for this developing market opportunity will be future 6G technology market solutions. This is because 6G will provide the potential for many new applications, services, and solutions related benefits such as substantive improvements in the areas of sensing, imaging, and location determination. Higher frequencies will enable much faster sampling rates as well as significantly greater accuracy, down to the centimeter level. The combination of sub-mmWave (e.g. wavelengths smaller than one millimeter) and the use of frequency selectivity to determine relative electromagnetic absorption rates will lead to potentially significant advances in wireless sensing solutions.
These solutions will produce enormous amounts of data. While some of this data will necessarily be handled by edge computing resources, much of it will require processing by more centralized high performance computing resources. However, classical HPC will not be suited to process data in many scenarios. Accordingly, the quantum technology market will be driven largely based on the development of 6G wireless capabilities and associated emerging use cases involving sensing, detection, identification, and imaging.
The demand for optimization and material simulation applications on quantum computers is likely to increase rapidly in the coming years. The demand to solve complex problems with simultaneous operations, and simulate molecules and materials to gain an accurate output is helping these applications to find opportunities in end-user industries such as automotive, chemicals, energy and power, and healthcare. The extensive R&D and growth strategies adopted by the companies and research labs operating in the ecosystem are likely to foster the growth of the quantum computing market in the coming years.
Some problems are too difficult to calculate but can be simulated and modeled. Quantum simulations and modeling is an area that involves the use of quantum technology to enable simulators that can model complex systems that are beyond the capabilities of classical HPC. Even the fastest supercomputers today cannot adequately model many problems such as those found in atomic physics, condensed-matter physics, and high-energy physics.
Together, North America and Europe are expected to hold over 78% share cumulatively in the quantum computing market in 2030. All the major investments are being recorded in the U.S., Canada, Germany, the U.K., and Russia. In the U.S., National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Security Agency (NSA), and the Los Alamos National Laboratory are involved in this technology related projects.
North America will be the biggest regional market for quantum technologies overall. China will lead the APAC quantum technology market at $4.44 billion by 2026 with 30.8% CAGR. Germany will lead the European quantum technology market at $2.45 billion by 2026 with 30.3% CAGR
Europe region will account for the highest incremental growth in Quantum Sensors due to the increasing investments in satellite communication and the rising number of satellite launches that are used to gather intelligence and enable navigation and military communications.
Among the 3 major regions, the quantum computing consulting solution market in APAC is expected to grow at the highest CAGR during the forecast period. APAC is a leading hub for several industries, including healthcare, banking, automotive, and chemicals. This region is the largest automobile producer in the world. Also, countries such as China, Japan, and South Korea are leading manufacturers of consumer electronics devices, including smartphones, laptops, and gaming consoles, in this region. There is a need to solve various complications related to application such as optimization, material simulation, and machine learning across these industries. The large-scale development exhibited by the emerging economies in APAC with the use of advanced technologies adopted in the manufacturing sector is contributing to the development of large and medium enterprises, which is also boosting the growth.
Key Industry players
Some of the key companies in Quantum field are 1QB Information Technologies Inc. (IQbit); Airbus Group; Alibaba Group Holding Limited; Altairnano; Amgen Inc.; Anhui Qasky Science & Technology Limited Liability Company (Qasky); Anyon Systems Inc.; AOSense Inc.; Apple Inc. (InVisage Technologies); Biogen Inc.; Booz Allen Hamilton Inc.; BT Group; Cambridge Quantum Computing Ltd. (CQC); D-Wave Systems Inc.; Fujitsu Ltd.;Google Inc.;GWR Instruments Inc.;Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE);Honeywell International Inc.;HP Development Company L.P.;IBM Corporation ;ID Quantique (IDQ); Infineon Technologies; Intel Corporation; KPN; LG Display Co. Ltd.; Lockheed Martin Corporation; M-Squared Lasers Limited; MagiQ Technologies Inc.; McAfee LLC; MicroSemi Corporation; Microsoft Corporation; Mitsubishi Electric Corp.; Muquans; Nanoco Group PLC; Nanosys Inc.; NEC Corporation; Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corporation (NTT); NN-Labs LLC; Nokia Corporation; Ocean NanoTech LLC;Oscilloquartz S.A.; OSRAM; PQ Solutions Limited (Post-Quantum); QC Ware Corp.;QD Laser Co. Inc.; Quantum Circuits Inc.; Quantum Materials Corp. (QMC); Qubitekk;Quintessence Labs; QxBranch LLC; Raytheon Company; Rigetti Computing; Robert Bosch GmbH; Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (QD Vision Inc.) ;SK Telecom
ST Microelectronics; Texas Instruments;Toshiba Corporation and Volkswagen AG.
The quantum computing market is highly competitive with high strategic stakes and product differentiation. Some of the key market players include International Business Machines (IBM) Corporation, Telstra Corporation Limited, IonQ Inc., Silicon Quantum Computing, Huawei Investment & Holding Co. Ltd., Alphabet Inc., Rigetti & Co Inc., Microsoft Corporation, D-Wave Systems Inc., Zapata Computing Inc., and Intel Corporation.
The quantum sensor market is fragmented, and the degree of fragmentation will accelerate during the forecast period. Key players in the market have been launching several initiatives and introducing innovative products and services to cater to a larger target audience during the pandemic. Major market participants include ADVA Optical Networking SE, AOSense Inc., Apogee Instruments Inc., GWR Instruments Inc., Kipp & Zonen BV, LI-COR Inc., Microchip Technology Inc., M-Squared Lasers Ltd., Muquans, and Skye Instruments Ltd.