Bloomberg New Energy Finance has forecasted that sales of electric vehicles will hit 41 million by 2040, representing 35% of new light duty vehicle sales. This would be almost 90 times the equivalent figure for 2015, when EV sales are estimated to have been 462,000, some 60% up on 2014.
EVs still make up less than 1 percent of global EV sales, but that figure is growing rapidly. The rapid demand for EV/HEV compared to gasoline-powered engines is mainly due to lower running costs, , incentives provided by governments around the world, lower battery prices, and rising gas prices.
Competition among electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids will be intense, which will further drive down prices. Volkswagen AG has pledged to make every model available as a plug-in hybrid by 2025. BMW AG has made the same promise. Hyundai Motor Co. promises eight plug-in hybrid models by 2020, plus two all-electric vehicles. Toyota Motor Corp. is coming with new version with twice the range of plug-in Prius.
Electric cars bring nice driving experience in form of instant acceleration, quieter and smoother driving experience, cheaper to run as well as cheaper to maintain, and also has environmental benefits.
EV/HEVs are also predicted for large growth in military. The US military is expected to purchase 92,400 electric vehicles for non-tactical purposes between now and 2020, says a new report. Navigant Research says the military will invest around $2.4 billion towards integrating hybrid (HEV) and plug-in electric (PEV) vehicles into its fleet.
According to US Military, the reductions in the Department’s need for energy can improve warfighting capabilities, such as increased range, better endurance, longer time on station, and reduced requirements for resupply. Improved energy performance also can reduce the risk and effects of attacks on supply lines and enable tactical and operational superiority.
Another driver behind the American military’s move to clean sources of energy is climate change – a threat that military leaders continue to warn policy makers is very real and will impact the military, whether it’s responding to natural disasters or responding to conflicts caused by scarce resources.
Electric vehicles to be 35% of global new car sales by 2040
EVs come in two categories – battery electric vehicles, or BEVs, that rely entirely on their batteries to provide power; and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, or PHEVs, that have batteries that can be recharged but have conventional engines as back-up. The best-selling BEV over the last six years has been the Nissan Leaf, and the best-selling PHEV the Chevrolet Volt.
The fleet of hybrid electric vehicles in the United States, with over 4 million units sold through April 2016, is the second largest in the world after Japan (over 5 million). American sales of hybrid electric vehicles represent about 36% of the more than 11 million hybrid sold worldwide through April 2016. Norway is by far the leader in total EV sales, with an impressive market share of 22%. The Netherlands and remains second overall, with an especially high share of PHEV sales. For two consecutive years, EV sales in Denmark and China have doubled or tripled the previous year’s totals.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance report suggests that further, big reductions in battery prices lie ahead, and that during the 2020s EVs will become a more economic option than gasoline or diesel cars in most countries. Electric and hybrid vehicles are gaining market share as battery and drivetrain costs decline, consumer preferences change and charging infrastructure roll-outs continue.
Colin McKerracher, lead advanced transportation analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, said: “At the core of this forecast is the work we have done on EV battery prices. Lithium-ion battery costs have already dropped by 65% since 2010, reaching $350 per kWh last year. We expect EV battery costs to be well below $120 per kWh by 2030, and to fall further after that as new chemistries come in.
This projected change between now and 2040 will have implications beyond the car market. The research estimates that the growth of EVs will mean they represent a quarter of the cars on the road by that date, displacing 13 million barrels per day of crude oil but using 2,700TWh of electricity. This would be equivalent to 11% of global electricity demand in 2015.
Asia Pacific will surpass North America as the largest market for plug-in EVs by 2018, the new figures from Navigant Research predict. Navigant Research predicts, sales of PEVs in North America, Western Europe, and Asia Pacific will grow from 352,000 annually in 2014 to 1.8 million in 2023. This growth is supported, according to the report, by the increasing availability of charging infrastructure, which is helping to alleviate a motorists’ range anxiety.
PEVs are better suited to and marketed toward urban areas, as vehicle range requirements are typically shorter in these communities. As such, the concentration of PEVs is anticipated to be higher in geographic areas with higher populations and more households. The largest urban markets during the forecast period, according to the report, will be Tokyo, Los Angeles, and Paris, with PEV sales in 2023 of 49,000, 39,000, and 25,000 vehicles, respectively.
Electric vehicle charger market
The analysts forecast global electric vehicle charger market to grow at a CAGR of 29.38% during the period 2016-2020. Incentives and subsidies provided by governments and regulatory bodies have been driving the growth of the global electric vehicle charger market.
Envision Solar has invented a portable solar-powered parking space called the EV ARC (Electric Vehicle Autonomous Renewable Charger). This 9/16-foot structure consists of a parking pad and a canopy of solar panels that can charge a 21.6-kWh battery.
Emerging trends such as wireless charging are expected to aid the electric vehicle charger market growth in the coming years. Wireless technology has become the main focus area for the electric vehicle and PHEV manufacturers because of its convenience. It also helps manufacturers differentiate their products. Wireless charging also facilitates charging on the go, which is expected to increase the sale of electric vehicles. For instance, in Gumi, South Korea, electric buses are charged through in-road wireless chargers.
During 2015, the Americas dominated the electric vehicle charger market, accounting for more than 43% of the market share. The market in the Americas is mainly driven by federal efforts to reduce the dependence on oil and related products.
key players in the global electric vehicle charger market: ABB Ltd., Leviton Manufacturing Co. Inc., Plugin Now (Bosch Group), Evatran Group (Plugless), and Siemens AG. Other prominent vendors in the market are: AddÉnergie, AeroVironment, Delphi Automotive, and POD Point.
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